Latest Forecast: Hung Parliament, Conservatives the largest party

UK-Elect Forecast, June 6th 2010. 

This is a "for fun" forecast, as it is too early to sensibly forecast party popularity in potentially 5 years time. This forecast also assumes that a referendum on adopting the "Alternative Vote" system passes - something by no means certain, particularly as mid-term governments are often so unpopular that they would have difficulty winning a referendum on the distribution of free money to electors.

The percentages used for this forecast are Con 37%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 21%. The Electoral System was set to Alternative Vote. Other parties votes were not specifically set. (If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )

Also, if you would like to forecast the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or your own local election, as well as the General Election, then click here to purchase

Party Seats Change from 2010 election Conservative 300 -6 Labour 250 -8 Liberal Democrat 71 +14 DUP 8 - Scottish National Party 6 - Sinn Fein 5 - Plaid Cymru 3 - SDLP 3 - Green 1 - Others 3 - Speaker 1 - Total Seats 650 -

Click on image to enlarge

Notes: The forecast base was the 2010 General Election. A Uniform National Swing method was used (UK-Elect supports several alternatives), and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. Tactical voting was set to 0% (i.e. disabled). No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.