"What If" Forecast 4 -  What if the Tories reach 40% of votes cast?  

This is a special  UK-Elect forecast examining "What would happen if the Tories reached 40% of votes cast?" (See also What if the Tories overtook Labour in votes?  What if the Liberal Democrat vote surged? What if the Labour vote slumped?,  What if Tactical Voting explodes? and What if main Parties get equal votes?) It is again based on the new Scottish parliamentary boundaries, and intended to represent one realistic possibility for what will actually happen at the next General Election. It is, however, not our current forecast - simply intended to examine in detail what would happen if the Tories reached 40% in terms of votes.

The percentages used for this simulation were Con 40%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 20%, Nationalists 2.5%. In this election simulation we assume that a maximum of 10% of people would be prepared to vote tactically against Labour in the right circumstances, something that we regard as a realistic possibility (it should be emphasised that this figure is not the number that we think will vote tactically, simply those who would be prepared to do so if they lived in a constituency where the circumstances were right.)

This simulation shows that Labour can still finish ahead of the Conservatives even with 8% fewer votes cast. (For details of the inherent bias in the electoral system see books such as: From Votes to Seats: The Operation of the UK Electoral System since 1945) It may also be noted that, in this scenario in a few constituencies where the Liberal Democrat's are second, the tactical voting does not always act to Labour's disadvantage even when aimed against it. The reason is that some votes switch from the originally third placed Tory to the originally second-placed Liberal Democrat candidate, but the swing to the Tories is much greater than that to the Liberal Democrats. The overall effect in a few constituencies is to reduce the overall Labour to Conservative swing where the Tory candidate has become the main challenger and finishes second as a result.

In Political terms, the effect of this scenario is that Parliament would be hung, with the likely outcome a minority Labour government dependent on the Liberal Democrats, whose 44 seats fairly narrowly exceed the 35 extra seats required by Labour to achieve an outright majority.

Party Seats Change from current situation  Change from adjusted current situation  Change from 2001 election Labour 288 -122 -111 -124 Conservative 283 +122 +119 +117 Liberal Democrat 44 -11 -10 -8 Scottish National Party 6 +1 +2 +2 Ulster Unionist 6 - - - DUP 5 -1 -1 - Plaid Cymru 5 +1 +1 +1 Sinn Fein 4 - - - SDLP 3 - - - Ind 1 - - - Speaker 1 - - - Labour Short By 35 -231 -222 -235

Click on image to enlarge

This forecast confirms that the bias in the electoral system is so strong that Tony Blair will probably still form a government even if the Labour Party slips badly in the polls. The electoral bias is primarily due to the average Labour constituency being far smaller than the average for the other parties, something that is partly corrected by the ongoing boundary review process. The changes in Scotland have reduced the bias by approximately 10 seats, but it is still large overall.

From time to time in the next few weeks we will feature other "what if" scenarios. To make your own "what if" forecasts, try using our "free for 3" UK-Elect v5.5GE Trial Version download.

To forecast any constituency in any British election (General, Scottish, Welsh, London, UK European or your local council) - order UK-Elect: Available products and prices

Notes: The maps, graphics, results and predictions included on this web site were all produced by UK-Elect. A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. The assumption was made that up to 10% of the electorate would be prepared to consider voting tactically against the Labour Party. The forecast base was the 2001 General Election constituency situation, adjusted to take account of the new Scottish parliamentary boundaries. Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only. The "change from adjusted current situation" column represents the change from the  the current situation f the latest boundary changes are taken into consideration.

What if the Tories overtook Labour in votes?  What if the Liberal Democrat vote surged?  What if the Labour vote slumped?  What if the Tories reach 40%?  What if Tactical Voting explodes? What if main Parties get equal votes?

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