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| "What If" Forecast 2 - What if the
Liberal Democrat vote surged?
This is a special UK-Elect forecast examining "What would happen if the Liberal Democrat vote surged?" (See also What if the Tories overtook Labour in votes?, What if the Labour vote slumped? What if the Tories reach 40%?, What if Tactical Voting explodes? and What if main Parties get equal votes?) It is again based on the new Scottish parliamentary boundaries, and intended to represent one realistic possibility for what will actually happen at the next General Election. It is, however, not our current forecast - simply intended to examine in detail what would happen if there was a substantial (not necessarily likely but still realistic) swing to the Liberal Democrats , a swing similar to that which often happens in local elections. The percentages used for this simulation were Lab 33%, Con 29%, Lib Dem 27%, Nationalists 2.5%. In this election simulation we assume that a maximum of 10% of people would be prepared to vote tactically against Labour in the right circumstances, something that we regard as a realistic possibility (it should be emphasised that this figure is not the number that we think will vote tactically, simply those who would be prepared to do so if they lived in a constituency where the circumstances were right.) This simulation shows that even with a substantial swing to them, and just 2% less votes than the Conservatives, The Liberal Democrats would still pick up well under 100 seats. (For details of the inherent bias in the electoral system see books such as: From Votes to Seats: The Operation of the UK Electoral System since 1945)
This forecast again confirms that the bias in the electoral system against the Liberal Democrats is so strong that even a substantial surge leaves them at a considerable disadvantage. The electoral bias is primarily due to their vote being spread more evenly than the other two big parties - in other words, they tend to come second everywhere..
From time to time in the next few weeks we will feature other "what if" scenarios. To make your own "what if" forecasts, try using our "free for 3" UK-Elect v5.5GE Trial Version download. To forecast any constituency in any British election (General, Scottish, Welsh, London, UK European or your local council) - order UK-Elect: Available products and prices Notes: The maps, graphics, results and predictions included on this web site were all produced by UK-Elect. A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. The assumption was made that up to 10% of the electorate would be prepared to consider voting tactically against the Labour Party. The forecast base was the 2001 General Election constituency situation, adjusted to take account of the new Scottish parliamentary boundaries. Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only. The "change from adjusted current situation" column represents the change from the the current situation f the latest boundary changes are taken into consideration.
What if the Tories overtook Labour in votes? What if the Liberal Democrat vote surged? What if the Labour vote slumped? What if the Tories reach 40%? What if Tactical Voting explodes? What if main Parties get equal votes? April 1992 May 1997 Apr 2000 Dec 2000 April 2001 May 2001 June 2001 (Forecast) June 2001 Dec 2001 Apr 2002 Sep 2002 May 2003 Oct 2003 Feb 2004 July 2004 Nov 2004 Jan 2005 Feb 2005 Mar 2005 Latest Forecast |
