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| "What If" Forecast 3 - What if the
Labour vote slumped?
This is a special UK-Elect forecast examining "What would happen if the Labour vote slumped?" (See also What if the Tories overtook Labour in votes? and What if the Liberal Democrat vote surged? What if the Tories reach 40%?, What if Tactical Voting explodes? and What if main Parties get equal votes?) It is again based on the new Scottish parliamentary boundaries, and intended to represent one realistic possibility for what will actually happen at the next General Election. It is, however, not our current forecast - simply intended to examine in detail what would happen if there was a substantial (not necessarily likely but still realistic) swing away from Labour, split fairly equally between the other two main parties. The percentages used for this simulation were Con37%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 24%, Nationalists 2.5%. In this election simulation we assume that a maximum of 10% of people would be prepared to vote tactically against Labour in the right circumstances, something that we regard as a realistic possibility (it should be emphasised that this figure is not the number that we think will vote tactically, simply those who would be prepared to do so if they lived in a constituency where the circumstances were right.) This simulation shows that even with with just 32% of the vote and 5% less votes than the Conservatives, Labour would still be by far the largest party. Parliament, would, however, be hung, with the likely outcome a minority Labour government heavily influenced by the Liberal Democrats, whose 60 seats would provide a comfortable cushion far exceeding the 26 extra seats required by Labour to achieve an outright majority. (For details of the inherent bias in the electoral system see books such as: From Votes to Seats: The Operation of the UK Electoral System since 1945)
From time to time in the next few weeks we will feature other "what if" scenarios. To make your own "what if" forecasts, try using our "free for 3" UK-Elect v5.5GE Trial Version download. To forecast any constituency in any British election (General, Scottish, Welsh, London, UK European or your local council) - order UK-Elect: Available products and prices Notes: The maps, graphics, results and predictions included on this web site were all produced by UK-Elect. A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. The assumption was made that up to 10% of the electorate would be prepared to consider voting tactically against the Labour Party. The tactical voting calculations for this simulation took into consideration party vote-transfer preferences (second choice party preferences). The forecast base was the 2001 General Election constituency situation, adjusted to take account of the new Scottish parliamentary boundaries. Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only. The "change from adjusted current situation" column represents the change from the the current situation if the latest boundary changes are taken into consideration. The "Labour short by" figure is the number of extra seats labour would require to achieve an effective majority over all other parties combined, taking account of the House of Commons speaker. What if the Tories overtook Labour in votes? What if the Liberal Democrat vote surged? What if the Labour vote slumped? What if the Tories reach 40%? What if Tactical Voting explodes? What if main Parties get equal votes? April 1992 May 1997 Apr 2000 Dec 2000 April 2001 May 2001 June 2001 (Forecast) June 2001 Dec 2001 Apr 2002 Sep 2002 May 2003 Oct 2003 Feb 2004 July 2004 Nov 2004 Jan 2005 Feb 2005 Mar 2005 Latest Forecast |
