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UK-Elect Scottish Parliament Forecast, October 1st 2014. 

SNP Short of Overall Majority By 2

This is the October 1st 2014 UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Scottish Pariament Election. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Scottish Parliament Election.

The percentages used for this forecast are constituency Vote: SNP 42% Lab 32%, Con 14%, Lib Dem 5%, Regional member vote: SNP 37%, Lab 29%, Con 13% Lib Dem 4%. Other parties votes were not specifically set. (If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )

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Party Seats Change
SNP 63 -6
Labour 42 +5
Conservative 18 +3
Liberal Democrat 3 -2
Green 2 -
Independent 1 -
Scottish National Party Short By 2 - NOC Gain from SNP
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies) Forecast for Scotland (Regions)
Forecast for Scottish Highlands Forecast for Scottish Lowlands
Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies, party in 2nd place) Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies gained)
Click on image to enlarge

Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election. A Uniform National Swing method was used (UK-Elect supports several alternatives). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Mamber System used in the Scottish Parliament elections. Tactical voting was set to 0% (i.e. disabled). Note: The colour scheme selected for the maps shown on this page uses Yellow for SNP, Orange for the Liberal Democrats, Red for Labour and Blue for the Conservatives. UK-Elect supports several alternate colour schemes and also allows party colours to be configured individually if desired.

Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on


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