UK-Elect General Election Forecast, December 1st 2014.
Hung Parliament - Labour Short By 41
This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2015 UK General Election, created on December 1st 2014. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next UK General Election. The continuing effect of the dramatic growth in SNP support since the Independence Referendum is illustrated in this forecast - with the 48 seats achieved by the SNP sufficient to deprive Labour of an effective governing majority and to make them by far the third largest party. In fact, the SNP may be able to choose who governs Britain. This forecast was done by an experimental UK-Elect method based on a blend of the traditional Uniform National Swing and proportional loss forecasting techniques, but also taking account of recent local constituency opinion polls and byelections, and using multiple iterations to achieve the correct target percentages.
The GB percentages used for this forecast were Lab 32%,
Con 32%, UKIP 16%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 6%. For Scotland the percentages used were
SNP 42%, Lab 26%, Con 16%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 4%, Green 4%.
Other parties votes were not specifically set.
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Notes: The forecast base was the 2010 General Election, although
gains are compared with the current situation (at December 1st).
An experimental UK-Elect forecasting method based on a blend of the Uniform National Swing and
Proportional Loss methods was used, with local opinion polls and
by-election data, and also possible tactical voting, taken into account during the calculations. Multiple
iterations were used to achieve the correct target percentages. Because of the experimental nature of the method used
the confidence level in this forecast should be regarded as lower than normal.
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