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What follows is a "What-If" UK-Elect General Election forecast based upon the current electoral boundaries. Note that these boundaries are likely to change before the next election, and that it is expected that the changes will favour the Conservatives, the UK's current governing party, perhaps by 10 or 15 seats or more.

UK-Elect General Election Forecast, June 23rd 2015.

Hung Parliament - Conservatives ahead by 49, short by 19.

This is a UK-Elect "What-If" forecast, based on "What if the next General Election were to take place using the current boundaries, and the Labour and Conservative parties end up tied at 34% of the vote each". The assumption is also made that the other parties will remain at similar levels of support to present, although with a slight gain in the Liberal Democrat vote and a small fall in the level of SNP support. This forecast, while using plausible percentages, is intended primarily to explore the way in which the current vote distribtuion favours the Conservatives, even before the new set of boundary changes.

In this detailed (top 3 parties in every constituency) UK-Elect forecast, the Conservative Party are forecast to win 306 seats, 49 ahead of Labour (257 seats), with the Scottish National Party on 50 seats, the Liberal Democrats 13, the Democratic Unionist Party 8, Sinn Fein 4, Plaid Cymru 3, SDLP 3, UKIP 1, Green 1 and Others 2. This forecast clearly illustrates the way in which the vote distribution in the electoral system now favours the Conservative Party.

This forecast was made using the UK-Elect v10.0 method.

In additional to individual seat forecasts, UK-Elect is capable of calculating seat-win probabilities for each of the parties in every seat. This method is preferred by many academics. When these seat-win probabilities are summed and rounded, the overall forecast result is:
 
UK-Elect Statistical Forecast:
Conservative 297
Labour 264
SNP 46
LD 17
Plaid Cymru 4
UKIP 2
Green 1
Speaker 1
NI Parties 18

The difference between the two methods can quite easily be seen by imagining the situation where party A has a 60% chance of winning each of 10 constituencies, party B a 30% chance, and party C a 10% chance. Under the usual constituency-based forecasting system party A would be predicted to win all 10 seats, whereas under the statistical method party A would be forecast to win 6 seats, party B 3, and party C 1. UK-Elect usually uses the constituency-based system, in part to avoid answering questions such as "You forecast that party C will win 1 seat - which one is that? Show me on your map..." with "actually, party C is not expected to win any particular seat" and then having to explain at length... However, the statistical approach does have its advantages, and it would be no surprise if it were better able to forecast the overall seat numbers, in particular those for the SNP, UKIP etc.

The GB percentages input for this forecast were Con 34%, Lab 34%, UKIP 12%, Lib Dem 9%, Green 5%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 44%, Lab 30%, Con 13%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 2%, Green 2%, for Wales the percentages used were Lab 38% Con 25%, Plaid Cymru 13%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 7%, Green 2%, and for London the percentages used were Lab 44%, Con 33%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 8%, Green 5% Other parties votes were not specifically set.

What will happen if there is a Hung Parliament, as in this forecast? The rules are very clear and defined in the Cabinet Manual: "A government holds office by virtue of its ability to command the confidence of the House of Commons, chosen by the electorate in a general election." You can read the full details for yourself here: The Cabinet Manual A guide to laws, conventions and rules on the operation of government.

The principles of government formation
2.7 The ability of a government to command the confidence of the elected House of Commons is central to its authority to govern. It is tested by votes on motions of confidence, or no confidence..
..
Parliaments with no overall majority in the House of Commons
2.12 Where an election does not result in an overall majority for a single party, the incumbent government remains in office unless and until the Prime Minister tenders his or her resignation and the Government's resignation to the Sovereign. An incumbent government is entitled to wait until the new Parliament has met to see if it can command the confidence of the House of Commons, but is expected to resign if it becomes clear that it is unlikely to be able to command that confidence and there is a clear alternative.
..
2.19 Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, if a government is defeated on a motion that 'this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government', there is then a 14-day period during which an alternative government can be formed from the House of Commons as presently constituted, or the incumbent government can seek to regain the confidence of the House. If no government can secure the confidence of the House of Commons during that period, through the approval of a motion that 'this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government', a general election will take place.

Why not forecast the General Election, Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or other UK election yourself? UK-Elect has a huge amount of functionality, data, maps etc. related to all types of U.K. elections. Make UK-Elect the core of your election experience - Forecast It All!

See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
Constituencies: UK   Scotland   Scotland (by maj)   Wales   London
Percentages: Main Party Percentages In Every Constituency
Maps: UK   UK (With Gains)   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   NW England   NE England   West Midlands   East Midlands   Yorks and Humberside   Gains   Losses   Swing To   Swing From   2nd

Party Seats Change
Conservative 306 -24
Labour 257 +25
SNP 50 -6
Liberal Democrat 13 +5
DUP 8 -1
Sinn Fein 4 -
Plaid Cymru 3 -
SDLP 3 -
UUP 2 -
UKIP 1 -
Green 1 -
Others 2 -
Con Short By 19 - Hung Parliament

See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page.

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
UK General Election Forecast for UK UK General Election Forecast for Scotland
UK General Election Forecast for Wales UK General Election Forecast for Eastern England
UK General Election Forecast for London UK General Election Forecast Gains
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.
 
Additional UK-Elect generated maps and screenshots (Click to enlarge)
UK General Election Forecast for South West England UK General Election Forecast for South East England UK General Election Forecast Losses
UK General Election Forecast for North West England UK General Election Forecast for North East England UK General Election Forecast 2nd Place
UK General Election Forecast for West Midlands UK General Election Forecast for East Midlands UK General Election Forecast for Yorkshire and Humberside
UK General Election Forecast - Coloured by most significant 'Swing To' percentage UK General Election Forecast - Coloured by most significant 'Swing From' percentage UK General Election Forecast for UK with Gains
Screenshot - start of a guided forecast Screenshot - Scottish constituencies Screenshot - configuring gains
Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge

Notes: The forecast base was the 2015 General Election. The forecasting was made using the UK-Elect v10.0 method, on a separate regional basis for Scotland, Wales, London, and Great Britain.

See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques.

Results from Northern Ireland are based largely on those of the last election (with some allowance for latest polls and inter-party agreements) but primarily included for completeness only.

Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on support@ukelect.co.uk.

 

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