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UK-Elect Welsh Assembly Forecast, September 24th 2015.

Labour forecast to fall short of overall majority by 4

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Welsh Assembly Election. It predicts Labour to fall 4 seats short of a majority due to significant gains by UKIP.

This forecast was created on September 24th 2015. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Welsh Assembly Election. Other recent forecasts include the Scottish Parliament Forecast (September 18th 2015).

The overall percentages used for this forecast were primarily based on opinion polls. The percentages used for the Constituency vote were: Constituency Vote: Lab 34% Con 24%, Plaid Cymru 20%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 6%, Green 2%. The percentages used for the AMS Regional Member vote were: AMS Vote: Lab 32% Con 22%, Plaid Cymru 20%, UKIP 14%, Lib Dem 5%, Green 5%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.

As a general guide, as soon as a party that does not win any constituencies exceeds about 5% in the AMS regional vote, it will start to win AMS seats rapidly - something that is well illustrated by this forecast.

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Party Overall Seats Change
Labour 27 -3
Conservative 12 -2
Plaid Cymru 11 -
UKIP 8 +8
Liberal Democrat 2 -3
Overall - Labour Short By 4
Party AMS Seats Change
UKIP 8 +8
Conservative 5 -3
Plaid Cymru 5 -1
Labour 2 -
Liberal Democrat 0 -4
AMS Seats - UKIP Gain 8, Lib Dem Lose 4, Con Lose 3
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, 1st Place) Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, 2nd Place)
Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, Coloured By Percentage Lead) Forecast for Wales (Votes and Seats Piecharts)
Forecast for Wales (Regions) Forecast for Wales (Regions, 2nd Place)
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Welsh Assembly Election. The UK-Elect v10.0 forecasting method was used (UK-Elect supports many alternatives). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Welsh Assembly elections, and which produced particularly interesting results in this case due to the exact workings of the d'Hondt calculations.) Changes and swings are in comparison with the current situation.

Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on support@ukelect.co.uk.

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