UK-Elect Downloads

Best Prospects for Liberal Democrat Gains in 2001

This chart shows the top 100 prospects for Liberal Democrat gains in 2001, sorted from easiest to most difficult.

UK-Elect Forecast for June 2001 Best Prospects for Labour Gains Best Prospects for Conservative Gains Best Prospects for Liberal Democrat Gains

Pos.	Constituency	Winner	Votes	Gain Info.	Majority	Swing Info.
1	Teignbridge	Patrick Nicholls	Con 24679 LDm 24398 Lab 11311 UKInd 1601 Grn 817 RDrm 139	Con hold	281 (0.45%)	Swing Con to LDm 7.34%
2	Wells	David Heathcoat-Amory	Con 22208 LDm 21680 Lab 10204 Ref 2196 NLP 92	Con hold	528 (0.94%)	Swing Con to LDm 5.29%
3	Dorset Mid & Poole North	Christopher Fraser	Con 20632 LDm 19951 Lab 8014 Ref 2136	Con hold	681 (1.34%)	Swing Con to LDm 5.39%
4	Totnes	Sir Anthony Steen	Con 19637 LDm 18760 Lab 8796 Ref 2552 Loc Con 2369 UKInd 999 Grn 548 RDrm 108	Con hold	877 (1.63%)	Swing Con to LDm 6.81%
5	Norfolk North	David Prior	Con 21456 LDm 20163 Lab 14736 Ref 2458	Con hold	1293 (2.20%)	Swing Con to LDm 9.42%
6	Tiverton & Honiton	Mrs Angela Browning	Con 24438 LDm 22785 Lab 7598 Ref 2952 Lib 635 Grn 485 NatDem 236	Con hold	1653 (2.80%)	Swing Con to LDm 8.40%
7	Christchurch	Christopher Chope	Con 26095 LDm 23930 Lab 3884 Ref 1684 UKInd 606	Con hold	2165 (3.85%)	Swing Con to LDm 18.28%
8	Dorset West	Oliver Letwin	Con 22036 LDm 20196 Lab 9491 UKInd 1590 NLP 239	Con hold	1840 (3.44%)	Swing Con to LDm 5.62%
9	Bridgwater	Tom King	Con 20174 LDm 18378 Lab 13519 Ref 2551	Con hold	1796 (3.29%)	Swing Con to LDm 6.89%
10	Eastbourne	Nigel Waterson	Con 22183 LDm 20189 Lab 6576 Ref 2724 Lib 741 UKInd 254	Con hold	1994 (3.79%)	Swing Con to LDm 4.01%
11	Surrey South West	Virginia Bottomley	Con 25165 LDm 22471 Lab 5333 Ref 2830 UKInd 401 ProLife 258	Con hold	2694 (4.77%)	Swing Con to LDm 10.13%
12	Conwy	Betty Williams	Lab 14561 LDm 12965 Con 10085 PC 2844 Ref 760 AltLD 250 NLP 95	Lab gain from Con	1596 (3.84%)	Swing Con to Lab 9.37%
13	Dorset North	Robert Walter	Con 23294 LDm 20548 Lab 5380 Ref 2564 UKInd 801	Con hold	2746 (5.22%)	Swing Con to LDm 6.94%
14	Orpington	John Horam	Con 24417 LDm 21465 Lab 10753 Ref 2316 UKInd 526 Lib 494 ProLife 191	Con hold	2952 (4.91%)	Swing Con to LDm 11.02%
15	Wiltshire North	James Gray	Con 25390 LDm 21915 Lab 8261 Ref 1774 UKInd 410 NLP 263	Con hold	3475 (5.99%)	Swing Con to LDm 9.33%
16	Cheadle	Stephen Day	Con 22944 LDm 19755 Lab 8253 Ref 1511	Con hold	3189 (6.08%)	Swing Con to LDm 11.00%
17	Southend West	David Amess	Con 18029 LDm 15414 Lab 10600 Ref 1734 UKInd 636 NLP 101	Con hold	2615 (5.62%)	Swing Con to LDm 9.10%
18	Oldham East & Saddleworth	Phil Woolas	Lab 22546 LDm 19157 Con 10666 Ref 1116 SocLab 470 NLP 146	Lab gain from Con	3389 (6.26%)	Swing Con to Lab 13.57%
19	Worcestershire West	Sir Michael Spicer	Con 22223 LDm 18377 Lab 7738 Grn 1006	Con hold	3846 (7.79%)	Swing Con to LDm 8.84%
20	Hastings & Rye	Michael Foster	Lab 16867 Con 14307 LDm 13717 Ref 2511 Lib 1046 UKInd 472 Lny 149	Lab gain from Con	2560 (5.22%)	Swing Con to Lab 18.52%
21	Rochdale	Ms Lorna Fitzsimons	Lab 23758 LDm 19213 Con 4237 BNP 653 IZB 221	Lab gain from LDm	4545 (9.45%)	Swing LDm to Lab 4.85%
22	Guildford	Nick St Aubyn	Con 24230 LDm 19439 Lab 9945 Ref 2650 UKInd 400 Pacifist 294	Con hold	4791 (8.41%)	Swing Con to LDm 7.05%
23	Bristol West	Valerie Davey	Lab 22068 Con 20575 LDm 17551 Ref 1304 Grn 852 SocLab 244 NLP 47	Lab gain from Con	1493 (2.38%)	Swing Con to Lab 12.08%
24	Westmorland & Lonsdale	Tim Collins	Con 21470 LDm 16949 Lab 10459 Ref 1931	Con hold	4521 (8.90%)	Swing Con to LDm 10.26%
25	Aberdeen South	Anne Begg	Lab 15541 LDm 12176 Con 11621 SNP 4299 Ref 425	Lab gain from Con	3365 (7.64%)	Swing Con to Lab 11.18%
26	Chesterfield	Tony Benn	Lab 26105 LDm 20330 Con 4752 IndOAP 202	Lab hold	5775 (11.24%)	Swing Lab to LDm 0.11%
27	Ryedale	Jogn Greenway	Con 21351 LDm 16293 Lab 8762 Ref 1460 UKInd 917	Con hold	5058 (10.37%)	Swing Con to LDm 7.52%
28	Bournemouth East	David Atkinson	Con 17997 LDm 13651 Lab 9181 Ref 1808 UKInd 791	Con hold	4346 (10.01%)	Swing Con to LDm 7.20%
29	Worthing East & Shoreham	Tim Loughton	Con 20864 LDm 15766 Lab 12335 Ref 1683 UKInd 921	Con hold	5098 (9.89%)	Swing Con to LDm 3.88%
30	New Forest East	Dr Julian Lewis	Con 21053 LDm 15838 Lab 5161	Con hold	5215 (12.40%)	Swing Con to LDm 3.61%
31	Ribble Valley	Nigel Evans	Con 26702 LDm 20062 Lab 9013 Ref 1297 NLP 147	Con hold	6640 (11.60%)	Swing Con to LDm 1.37%
32	Salisbury	Robert Key	Con 25012 LDm 18736 Lab 10242 UKInd 3332 Grn 623 Ind 184 NLP 110	Con hold	6276 (10.78%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.01%
33	Falmouth & Cambourne	Candy Atherton	Lab 18151 Con 15463 LDm 13512 Ref 3534 IndL 1691 Lib 527 UKInd 355 MK 238 Lny 161	Lab gain from Con	2688 (5.01%)	Swing Con to Lab 6.36%
34	Suffolk South	Tim Yeo	Con 19402 Lab 15227 LDm 14395 Ref 2740 NLP 211	Con hold	4175 (8.03%)	Swing Con to LDm 7.72%
35	Westbury	David Faber	Con 23037 LDm 16969 Lab 11969 Lib 1956 Ref 1909 UKInd 771 NLP 140	Con hold	6068 (10.69%)	Swing Con to LDm 3.81%
36	Poole	Robert Syms	Con 19726 LDm 14428 Lab 10100 Ref 1932 UKInd 487 NLP 137	Con hold	5298 (11.32%)	Swing Con to LDm 7.22%
37	Congleton	Ann Winterton	Con 22012 LDm 15882 Lab 14714 UKInd 811	Con hold	6130 (11.48%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.65%
38	Chelmsford West	Simon Burns	Con 23781 LDm 17090 Lab 15436 Ref 1536 Grn 411 UKInd 323	Con hold	6691 (11.42%)	Swing Con to LDm 7.23%
39	Aldershot	Gerald Howarth	Con 23119 LDm 16498 Lab 13057 UKInd 794 Ind 361 BNP 322	Con hold	6621 (12.23%)	Swing Con to LDm 9.75%
40	Woking	Humfrey Malins	Con 19553 LDm 13875 Lab 10695 IndC 3933 Ref 2209 UKInd 512 NLP 137	Con hold	5678 (11.15%)	Swing Con to LDm 10.44%
41	Harborough	Edward Garnier	Con 22170 LDm 15646 Lab 13332 Ref 1859	Con hold	6524 (12.31%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.99%
42	Sussex Mid	Nicholas Soames	Con 23231 LDm 16377 Lab 9969 Ref 3146 UKInd 606 IndJRP 134	Con hold	6854 (12.82%)	Swing Con to LDm 8.93%
43	Norfolk South	John MacGregor	Con 24935 LDm 17557 Lab 16188 Ref 2533 Grn 484 UKInd 400	Con hold	7378 (11.88%)	Swing Con to LDm 6.78%
44	Birmingham Yardley	Estelle Morris	Lab 17778 LDm 12463 Con 6736 Ref 646 UKInd 164	Lab hold	5315 (14.07%)	Swing Con to Lab 14.42%
45	Ludlow	Christopher Gill	Con 19633 LDm 13724 Lab 11745 Grn 798 UKInd 385	Con hold	5909 (12.77%)	Swing Con to LDm 6.63%
46	Folkestone & Hythe	Michael Howard	Con 20313 LDm 13981 Lab 12939 Ref 4188 UKInd 378 SP 182 CFSS 69	Con hold	6332 (12.17%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.41%
47	Woodspring	Dr Liam Fox	Con 24425 LDm 16691 Lab 11377 Ref 1614 Grn 667 Ind 101 NLP 52	Con hold	7734 (14.08%)	Swing Con to LDm 3.80%
48	Shrewsbury & Atcham	Paul Marsden	Lab 20484 Con 18814 LDm 13838 Ref 1346 UKInd 477 CFSS 257 PPP 128	Lab gain from Con	1670 (3.02%)	Swing Con to Lab 11.40%
49	Worthing West	Peter Bottomley	Con 23733 LDm 16020 Lab 8347 Ref 2313 UKInd 1029	Con hold	7713 (14.99%)	Swing Con to LDm 9.62%
50	Devon East	Sir Peter Emery	Con 22797 LDm 15308 Lab 9292 Ref 3200 Lib 1363 UKInd 459 NatDem 131	Con hold	7489 (14.25%)	Swing Con to LDm 5.60%
51	Aylesbury	David Lidington	Con 25426 LDm 17007 Lab 12759 Ref 2196 NLP 166	Con hold	8419 (14.63%)	Swing Con to LDm 7.46%
52	Bournemouth West	John Butterfill	Con 17115 LDm 11405 Lab 10093 Ref 1910 UKInd 281 BNP 165 NLP 103	Con hold	5710 (13.90%)	Swing Con to LDm 5.59%
53	Wantage	Robert Jackson	Con 22311 Lab 16272 LDm 14822 Ref 1549 Grn 640 UKInd 465	Con hold	6039 (10.77%)	Swing Con to LDm 7.90%
54	Tunbridge Wells	Archie Norman	Con 21853 LDm 14347 Lab 9879 Ref 1858 UKInd 264 NLP 153	Con hold	7506 (15.52%)	Swing Con to LDm 5.02%
55	Haltemprice & Howden	David Davis	Con 21809 LDm 14295 Lab 11701 Ref 1370 UKInd 301 NLP 74	Con hold	7514 (15.16%)	Swing Con to LDm 9.48%
56	Gainsborough	Edward Leigh	Con 20593 Lab 13767 LDm 13436	Con hold	6826 (14.28%)	Swing Con to LDm 6.32%
57	Leeds Central	Hilary Benn	Lab 6361 LDm 4068 Con 1618 Grn 478 UKInd 353 Left Al. 258 Parents 51	Lab hold	2293 (17.39%)	Swing Lab to Con 9.97%
58	Wokingham	John Redwood	Con 25086 LDm 15721 Lab 8424 Lny 877	Con hold	9365 (18.69%)	Swing Con to LDm 8.71%
59	Chichester	Andrew Tyrie	Con 25895 LDm 16161 Lab 9605 Ref 3318 UKInd 800	Con hold	9734 (17.45%)	Swing Con to LDm 7.62%
60	Devizes	Michael Ancram	Con 25710 LDm 15928 Lab 14551 Ref 3021 UKInd 622 NLP 204	Con hold	9782 (16.29%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.11%
61	Canterbury	Julian Brazier	Con 20913 Lab 16949 LDm 12854 Ref 2460 Grn 588 UKInd 281 NLP 64	Con hold	3964 (7.33%)	Swing Con to LDm 1.46%
62	Cambridgeshire South	Andrew Lansley	Con 22572 LDm 13860 Lab 13485 Ref 3300 UKInd 298 NLP 168	Con hold	8712 (16.23%)	Swing Con to LDm 8.72%
63	Tewkesbury	Lawrence Robertson	Con 23859 LDm 14625 Lab 13665	Con hold	9234 (17.71%)	Swing Con to LDm 0.46%
64	Mole Valley	Sir Paul Beresford	Con 26178 LDm 15957 Lab 8057 Ref 2424 IndCRP 1276 UKInd 435 NLP 197	Con hold	10221 (18.75%)	Swing Con to LDm 6.98%
65	Windsor	Michael Trend	Con 24476 LDm 14559 Lab 9287 Ref 1676 Lib 388 UKInd 302 Dynamic 93	Con hold	9917 (19.53%)	Swing Con to LDm 3.82%
66	Leeds North West	Harold Best	Lab 19694 Con 15850 LDm 11689 Ref 1325 SocLab 335 ProLife 251 RRP 232	Lab gain from Con	3844 (7.79%)	Swing Con to Lab 11.77%
67	Saffron Walden	Alan Haselhurst	Con 25871 LDm 15298 Lab 12275 Ref 2308 UKInd 658 Ind 486 NLP 154	Con hold	10573 (18.53%)	Swing Con to LDm 4.72%
68	Hampshire East	Michael Mates	Con 27927 LDm 16337 Lab 9945 Ref 2757 Grn 649 UKInd 513	Con hold	11590 (19.94%)	Swing Con to LDm 6.60%
69	Cambridgeshire South East	James Paice	Con 24397 Lab 15048 LDm 14246 Ref 2838 Fair 167 NLP 111	Con hold	9349 (16.46%)	Swing Con to LDm 9.19%
70	Brentwood & Ongar	Eric Pickles	Con 23031 LDm 13341 Lab 11231 Ref 2658 UKInd 465	Con hold	9690 (19.10%)	Swing Con to LDm 4.03%
71	Cardiff Central	Jon Owen Jones	Lab 18464 LDm 10541 Con 8470 SocLab 2230 PC 1504 Ref 760 Lny 204 NLP 80	Lab hold	7923 (18.75%)	Swing Con to Lab 7.79%
72	Solihull	John Taylor	Con 26299 LDm 14902 Lab 14334 Ref 2748 ProLife 623	Con hold	11397 (19.35%)	Swing Con to LDm 10.25%
73	Havant	David Willetts	Con 19204 Lab 15475 LDm 10806 Ref 2395 BIPFP 442	Con hold	3729 (7.72%)	Swing Con to LDm 4.69%
74	Louth & Horncastle	Sir Peter Tapsell	Con 21699 Lab 14799 LDm 12207 Grn 1248	Con hold	6900 (13.81%)	Swing Con to LDm 1.01%
75	Penrith & The Border	David Maclean	Con 23300 LDm 13067 Lab 10576 Ref 2018	Con hold	10233 (20.90%)	Swing Con to LDm 4.39%
76	Dorset South	Ian Bruce	Con 17755 Lab 17678 LDm 9936 Ref 2791 UKInd 861 NLP 161	Con hold	77 (0.16%)	Swing Con to LDm 4.21%
77	Suffolk Coastal	John Gummer	Con 21696 Lab 18442 LDm 12036 Ref 3416 Grn 514 NLP 152	Con hold	3254 (5.78%)	Swing Con to Lab 11.69%
78	Devon South West	Gary Streeter	Con 22695 Lab 15262 LDm 12542 Ref 1668 UKInd 491 NLP 159	Con hold	7433 (14.07%)	Swing Con to LDm 6.42%
79	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	Con 25149 LDm 13817 Lab 7092 Ref 2150 UKInd 1542	Con hold	11332 (22.78%)	Swing Con to LDm 3.70%
80	Colne Valley	Kali Mountford	Lab 23285 Con 18445 LDm 12755 SocLab 759 Grn 493 UKInd 478 Lny 196	Lab gain from Con	4840 (8.58%)	Swing Con to Lab 10.41%
81	Bognor Regis & Littlehampton	Nick Gibb	Con 20537 Lab 13216 LDm 11153 UKInd 1537	Con hold	7321 (15.76%)	Swing Con to LDm 4.96%
82	Skipton & Ripon	David Curry	Con 25294 LDm 13674 Lab 12171 Ref 3212	Con hold	11620 (21.38%)	Swing Con to LDm 4.59%
83	Ceredigion	Simon Thomas	PC 10716 LDm 5768 Con 4138 Lab 3612 UKInd 487 IndGrn 289 WalesSun 55	PC hold	4948 (19.74%)	Swing Lab to PC 5.51%
84	Henley	Michael Heseltine	Con 23908 LDm 12741 Lab 11700 Ref 2299 Grn 514 NLP 221 Whig 160	Con hold	11167 (21.67%)	Swing Con to LDm 7.21%
85	Hampshire North West	Sir George Young	Con 24730 LDm 13179 Lab 12900 Ref 1533 UKInd 1383 Grn 486 Bypass 231 Ind 225	Con hold	11551 (21.13%)	Swing Con to LDm 4.47%
86	Vale of York	Anne McIntosh	Con 23815 Lab 14094 LDm 12656 Ref 2503 SDm 197	Con hold	9721 (18.25%)	Swing Con to LDm 5.91%
87	Sevenoaks	Michael Fallon	Con 22776 Lab 12315 LDm 12086 Ref 2138 Grn 443 PF 244 NLP 147	Con hold	10461 (20.86%)	Swing Con to LDm 5.87%
88	Stratford-on-Avon	John Maples	Con 29967 LDm 15861 Lab 12754 Ref 2064 UKInd 556 NLP 307 SFDC 306 ProLife 284	Con hold	14106 (22.72%)	Swing Con to LDm 5.22%
89	Bexhill & Battle	Charles Wardle	Con 23570 LDm 12470 Lab 8866 Ref 3302 UKInd 786	Con hold	11100 (22.66%)	Swing Con to LDm 4.38%
90	Maidenhead	Theresa May	Con 25344 LDm 13363 Lab 9205 Ref 1638 Lib 896 UKInd 277 Glow 166	Con hold	11981 (23.54%)	Swing Con to LDm 4.09%
91	Wealden	Sir G. Johnson Smith	Con 29417 LDm 15213 Lab 10185 Ref 3527 UKInd 569 NLP 188	Con hold	14204 (24.03%)	Swing Con to LDm 5.32%
92	Inverness East Nairn & Lochaber	David Stewart	Lab 16187 SNP 13848 LDm 8364 Con 8355 Ref 436 Grn 354 CU 224	Lab gain from LDm	2339 (4.90%)	Swing LDm to Lab 9.95%
93	Bromley & Chislehurst	Eric Forth	Con 24428 Lab 13310 LDm 12530 UKInd 1176 Grn 640 NF 369 Lib 285	Con hold	11118 (21.08%)	Swing Con to LDm 10.78%
94	Maidstone & The Weald	Ann Widdecombe	Con 23657 Lab 14054 LDm 11986 Ref 1998 SocLab 979 Grn 480 UKInd 339 NLP 115	Con hold	9603 (17.91%)	Swing Con to LDm 2.03%
95	Shropshire North	Owen Paterson	Con 20730 Lab 18535 LDm 10489 Ref 1764	Con hold	2195 (4.26%)	Swing Con to Lab 10.21%
96	St Albans	Kerry Pollard	Lab 21338 Con 16879 LDm 10692 Ref 1619 RDrm 166 NLP 111	Lab gain from Con	4459 (8.78%)	Swing Con to Lab 14.70%
97	Epsom & Ewell	Sir Archibald Hamilton	Con 24717 Lab 13192 LDm 12380 Ref 2355 UKInd 544 Grn 527 ProLife 466	Con hold	11525 (21.27%)	Swing Con to LDm 7.52%
98	Cotswold	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	Con 23698 LDm 11733 Lab 11608 Ref 3393 Grn 560 NLP 129	Con hold	11965 (23.41%)	Swing LDm to Con 1.19%
99	Buckingham	John Bercow	Con 24594 Lab 12208 LDm 12175 NLP 421	Con hold	12386 (25.07%)	Swing Con to LDm 8.14%
100	Horsham	Francis Maude	Con 29015 LDm 14153 Lab 10691 Ref 2281 UKInd 819 FEP 206	Con hold	14862 (26.00%)	Swing Con to LDm 6.76%

Notes: Table was generated by UK-Elect v4.5, and reflects situation at 10th February 2001. Where the Liberal Democrats are second the swing required to win a seat can be obtained by halving the majority. The table filtering was set to include constituencies in Great Britain only (excluding Northern Ireland). Gains and swings are compared to the previous election in that constituency. Where constituency boundaries changed between 1992 and 1997, estimates of what the 1992 results would have been if the 1997 boundaries had been used are taken from the definitive work by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher: "Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies" (ISBN: 0 948858 21 4)