Forecast Gains in 2001 (based on May Opinion Poll percentages)
This chart shows forecast gains in 2001 based on our currently expected General Election poll percentages (Labour 44% Conservative 33% Liberal Democrat 17%). A uniform national swing was used, but with some allowance for tactical voting and iterative correction of forecast vote percentages (see details below).
UK-Elect Forecast for General Election 2001 Best Prospects for Labour Gains Best Prospects for Conservative Gains Best Prospects for Liberal Democrat Gains
| Constituency | Votes | Gain Info. | |
| Bristol West | Pamela Chesters Con 19890 Valerie Davey Lab 19519 Stephen Williams LDm 16655 | Con gain from Lab | |
| Dorset Mid and Poole North | Annette Brooke LDm 20116 Christopher Fraser Con 20000 James Selby-Bennett Lab 5218 | LDm gain from Con | |
| Dorset South | Jim Knight Lab 17399 Ian Bruce Con 17186 Andrew Canning LDm 7911 | Lab gain from Con | |
| Kettering | Philip Hollobone Con 23728 Philip Sawford Lab 23061 Roger Aron LDm 4652 | Con gain from Lab | |
| Rugby and Kenilworth | David Martin Con 25080 Andy King Lab 25013 Gwen Fairweather LDm 6819 | Con gain from Lab | |
| Teignbridge | Richard Younger-Ross LDm 25086 Patrick Nicholls Con 23913 Christopher Bain Lab 7615 | LDm gain from Con | |
| Totnes | Rachael Oliver LDm 19658 Anthony Steen Con 19011 Thomas Wildy Lab 5782 | LDm gain from Con | |
| Wellingborough | Peter Bone Con 23933 Paul Stinchcombe Lab 23386 Peter Gaskell LDm 3974 | Con gain from Lab | |
| Wells | Graham Oakes LDm 22052 David Heathcoat-Amory Con 21520 Andy Merryfield Lab 6881 | LDm gain from Con | |
Notes: The maps, graphics, results and predictions included on this web site were all produced by UK-Elect v4.6 A multi-party uniform percentage swing method was used as the forecast base with the following percentages: Labour 44% Conservative 33% Liberal Democrat 17%, for GB constituencies only. Tactical voting assumptions were applied as follows: it was assumed that up to 15% of the population would be prepared to vote tactically, and would do so if the party voted against tactically was 1st or 2nd and the gap between 1st and 2nd parties was less than 20%, and the gap between 2nd and 3rd more than 10%. It was also assumed that the party voted against tactically would continue to be the Conservatives (in accordance with recent by-election and other results). The forecast base (from which gains are compared) was the 1997 General Election constituency situation. No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Iteration was used to correct forecasting errors introduced as a result of the tactical voting and other factors such as the Speaker's seat where some parties are not standing - this was done by summing all the forecast votes and comparing with the overall GB targets for each of the parties, and then adjusting the swing percentages accordingly. Because of the tactical voting and variations in minor party percentages the final forecast swings are not uniform and differ from constituency to constituency. No detailed forecast was made for Tatton - although it was assumed that this would be regained by the Conservatives. Candidate names are believed to be correct but may change and cannot be guaranteed - please notify us immediately of any errors.
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April 1992 May 1997 Feb 2000 Mar 2000 Apr 2000 May 2000 Jun 2000 Jul 2000 Aug 2000 Sep 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Dec 2000 Jan 2001 Feb 2001 Mar 2001 April 2001 May 2001 June 2001 5% Swing Con-Lab 5% Swing Lab-Con 10% Swing Lab-Con 15% Swing Lab-Con
