Forecast Marginal Seats in 2001
This chart shows forecast marginal seats in 2001 based on our currently expected General Election poll percentages (Labour 44% Conservative 33% Liberal Democrat 17%). A uniform national swing was used, but with some allowance for tactical voting and iterative correction of forecast vote percentages (see details below). Seats with a forecast majority of less than 2000 are shown.
UK-Elect Forecast for General Election 2001 Best Prospects for Labour Gains Best Prospects for Conservative Gains Best Prospects for Liberal Democrat Gains
| Constituency | Votes | Gain Info. |
| Bedfordshire South West | Andrew Selous Con 20875 Andrew Date Lab 20343 Martin Pantling LDm 5900 | Con hold |
| Beverley and Holderness | James Cran Con 20968 Pippa Langford Lab 20094 Stewart Willie LDm 7676 | Con hold |
| Billericay | John Baron Con 21353 Amanda Campbell Lab 20193 Frank Bellard LDm 6886 | Con hold |
| Boston and Skegness | Mark Simmonds Con 19155 Elaine Bird Lab 18229 Duncan Moffatt LDm 6083 | Con hold |
| Bosworth | David Tredinnick Con 20540 Andrew Furlong Lab 19286 Jon Ellis LDm 7341 | Con hold |
| Braintree | Alan Hurst Lab 22465 Brooks Newmark Con 21592 Peter Turner LDm 4929 | Lab hold |
| Bridgwater | Ian Liddell-Grainger Con 19533 Ian Thorn LDm 17537 William Monteith Lab 11406 | Con hold |
| Bristol West | Pamela Chesters Con 19890 Valerie Davey Lab 19519 Stephen Williams LDm 16655 | Con gain from Lab |
| Bury St Edmunds | David Ruffley Con 20623 Mark Ereira Lab 20266 Richard Williams LDm 8001 | Con hold |
| Carmarthen East and Dinefwr | Alan Williams Lab 16148 Adam Price PC 14180 David Thomas Con 4732 | Lab hold |
| Castle Point | Christine Butler Lab 19519 Robert Spink Con 18889 Billy Boulton LDm 3364 | Lab hold |
| Chipping Barnet | Sir Sydney Chapman Con 20678 Damien Welfare Lab 19088 Sean Hooker LDm 4727 | Con hold |
| Christchurch | Christopher Chope Con 25333 Dorothy Webb LDm 23334 Judith Begg Lab 1617 | Con hold |
| Colchester | Bob Russell LDm 17078 Kevin Bentley Con 15750 Chris Fegan Lab 13821 | LDm hold |
| Conwy | Betty Williams Lab 12872 Vicky Macdonald LDm 12345 David Logan Con 9699 | Lab hold |
| Dorset Mid and Poole North | Annette Brooke LDm 20116 Christopher Fraser Con 20000 James Selby-Bennett Lab 5218 | LDm gain from Con |
| Dorset South | Jim Knight Lab 17399 Ian Bruce Con 17186 Andrew Canning LDm 7911 | Lab gain from Con |
| Dorset West | Oliver Letwin Con 21365 Simon Green LDm 20721 Richard Hyde Lab 6369 | Con hold |
| Eastbourne | Nigel Waterson Con 21513 Chris Berry LDm 20335 Gillian Roles Lab 3964 | Con hold |
| Eastleigh | David Chidgey LDm 18584 Conor Burns Con 18083 Sam Jaffa Lab 12715 | LDm hold |
| Eddisbury | Stephen O'Brien Con 20394 Bill Eyres Lab 18752 Paul Roberts LDm 5077 | Con hold |
| Enfield, Southgate | Stephen Twigg Lab 19325 John Flack Con 18554 Wayne Hoban LDm 3787 | Lab hold |
| Falmouth and Camborne | Candy Atherton Lab 15983 Nick Serpell Con 14917 Julian Brazil LDm 12774 | Lab hold |
| Gillingham | Paul Clark Lab 19585 Tim Butcher Con 17622 Jonathan Hunt LDm 7660 | Lab hold |
| Glasgow Govan | Mohammad Sarwar Lab 12849 Karen Neary SNP 10953 Mark Menzies Con 2635 | Lab hold |
| Harrow West | Gareth Thomas Lab 20789 Danny Finkelstein Con 19933 Christopher Noyce LDm 6376 | Lab hold |
| Harwich | Ivan Henderson Lab 20157 Iain Sproat Con 18901 Peter Wilcock LDm 5461 | Lab hold |
| Hastings and Rye | Michael Foster Lab 14878 Mark Coote Con 13804 Graem Peters LDm 13016 | Lab hold |
| Hexham | Peter Atkinson Con 17149 Paul Brannen Lab 16867 Philip Latham LDm 6289 | Con hold |
| Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber | David Stewart Lab 14256 Angus McNeil SNP 13387 Richard Jenkins Con 7972 | Lab hold |
| Kettering | Philip Hollobone Con 23728 Philip Sawford Lab 23061 Roger Aron LDm 4652 | Con gain from Lab |
| Kingston and Surbiton | Edward Davey LDm 21174 David Shaw Con 19706 Phil Woodford Lab 9075 | LDm hold |
| Lancaster and Wyre | Hilton Dawson Lab 23786 Steve Barclay Con 23147 Liz Scott LDm 5224 | Lab hold |
| Lewes | Norman Baker LDm 21098 Simon Sinnatt Con 19339 Paul Richards Lab 2944 | LDm hold |
| Lichfield | Michael Fabricant Con 20227 Martin Machray Lab 19331 Philip Bennion LDm 4194 | Con hold |
| Meriden | Caroline Spelman Con 22301 Christine Shawcroft Lab 21173 Nigel Hicks LDm 5503 | Con hold |
| Milton Keynes North East | Brian White Lab 19400 Marion Rix Con 19340 David Yeoward LDm 7037 | Lab hold |
| Norfolk Mid | Keith Simpson Con 22036 Daniel Zeichner Lab 20659 Vivienne Clifford-Jackson LDm 6748 | Con hold |
| Norfolk North | David Prior Con 20771 Norman Lamb LDm 19251 Michael Gates Lab 12458 | Con hold |
| Norfolk North West | George Turner Lab 23710 Henry Bellingham Con 23185 Ian Mack LDm 4159 | Lab hold |
| Northampton South | Tony Clarke Lab 22859 Shailesh Vara Con 22755 Andrew Simpson LDm 4832 | Lab hold |
| Oldham East and Saddleworth | Phil Woolas Lab 20278 Howard Sykes LDm 18306 Craig Heeley Con 10210 | Lab hold |
| Orpington | John Horam Con 23669 Chris Maines LDm 22032 Chris Purnell Lab 7230 | Con hold |
| Romford | Eileen Gordon Lab 17097 Andrew Rosindell Con 17006 Nigel Meyer LDm 2466 | Lab hold |
| Rugby and Kenilworth | David Martin Con 25080 Andy King Lab 25013 Gwen Fairweather LDm 6819 | Con gain from Lab |
| Shrewsbury and Atcham | Paul Marsden Lab 18213 Anthea McIntyre Con 18196 Jonathan Rule LDm 13078 | Lab hold |
| Sittingbourne and Sheppey | Derek Wyatt Lab 18089 Adrian Lee Con 16257 Elvie Lowe LDm 6692 | Lab hold |
| Somerton and Frome | David Heath LDm 22969 Jonathan Marland Con 21855 Andrew Perkins Lab 6169 | LDm hold |
| Southend West | David Amess Con 17467 Richard de Ste Croix LDm 16174 Paul Fisher Lab 7496 | Con hold |
| Suffolk West | Richard Spring Con 19468 Michael Jefferys Lab 17496 Robin Martlew LDm 5373 | Con hold |
| Teignbridge | Richard Younger-Ross LDm 25086 Patrick Nicholls Con 23913 Christopher Bain Lab 7615 | LDm gain from Con |
| Tiverton and Honiton | Angela Browning Con 23694 Jim Barnard LDm 22997 Isabel Owen Lab 4630 | Con hold |
| Torbay | Adrian Sanders LDm 21579 Christian Sweeting Con 20430 John McKay Lab 5068 | LDm hold |
| Totnes | Rachael Oliver LDm 19658 Anthony Steen Con 19011 Thomas Wildy Lab 5782 | LDm gain from Con |
| Uxbridge | John Randall Con 17555 Dave Salisbury-Jones Lab 16276 Catherine Royce LDm 3460 | Con hold |
| Wellingborough | Peter Bone Con 23933 Paul Stinchcombe Lab 23386 Peter Gaskell LDm 3974 | Con gain from Lab |
| Wells | Graham Oakes LDm 22052 David Heathcoat-Amory Con 21520 Andy Merryfield Lab 6881 | LDm gain from Con |
| Winchester | Mark Oaten LDm 25894 Andrew Hayes Con 25309 Stephen Wyeth Lab 3653 | LDm hold |
Notes: The maps, graphics, results and predictions included on this web site were all produced by UK-Elect v4.6 A multi-party uniform percentage swing method was used as the forecast base with the following percentages: Labour 44% Conservative 33% Liberal Democrat 17%, for GB constituencies only. Tactical voting assumptions were applied as follows: it was assumed that up to 15% of the population would be prepared to vote tactically, and would do so if the party voted against tactically was 1st or 2nd and the gap between 1st and 2nd parties was less than 20%, and the gap between 2nd and 3rd more than 10%. It was also assumed that the party voted against tactically would continue to be the Conservatives (in accordance with recent by-election and other results). The forecast base (from which gains are compared) was the 1997 General Election constituency situation. No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Iteration was used to correct forecasting errors introduced as a result of the tactical voting and other factors such as the Speaker's seat where some parties are not standing - this was done by summing all the forecast votes and comparing with the overall GB targets for each of the parties, and then adjusting the swing percentages accordingly. Because of the tactical voting and variations in minor party percentages the final forecast swings are not uniform and differ from constituency to constituency. No detailed forecast was made for Tatton - although it was assumed that this would be regained by the Conservatives. Candidate names are believed to be correct but may change and cannot be guaranteed - please notify us immediately of any errors.
Contact us to comment on the above forecast.
April 1992 May 1997 Feb 2000 Mar 2000 Apr 2000 May 2000 Jun 2000 Jul 2000 Aug 2000 Sep 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Dec 2000 Jan 2001 Feb 2001 Mar 2001 April 2001 May 2001 June 2001 5% Swing Con-Lab 5% Swing Lab-Con 10% Swing Lab-Con 15% Swing Lab-Con
