Latest Forecast: Narrow Conservative Victory

UK-Elect Forecast, September 2008.

For the purpose of this forecast we have assumed that Labour will recover slightly before the next General Election.

The percentages used for this forecast are therefore Con 40%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 18%. Other parties votes were not specifically set, and this forecast may therefore underestimate SNP and minor party gains.   (If you prefer to forecast using your own percentages, the current opinion polls, or with a lower/higher level of tactical voting, download a trial version or browse the UK-Elect on-line shop.

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Party Seats Change from 2005 election Labour 259 -96 Conservative 338 +140 Liberal Democrat 21 -41 DUP 9 - Scottish National Party 5 -1 Sinn Fein 5 - Plaid Cymru 5 +2 SDLP 3 - UUP 1 - Others 3 - Speaker 1 - Conservative Majority 28 -

Click on image to enlarge

Note: Labour majority shown above simply excludes the Speaker ,  from the calculation.

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Notes: The maps, graphics, results and predictions included on this web site were all produced by UK-Elect. The forecast base was the 2005 General Election constituency situation - it should be noted that many constituency boundaries will change before the next election. A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only. The Labour majority figure here simply excludes the speaker from the calculation (Note: normally, in the event of a tie, the Speaker will vote with the Government.)

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