UK-ELECT RELEASE 12.4 --------------------- UK-Elect is an extremely comprehensive National, Local and By-election forecasting and analysis program. UK-Elect includes up-to-date maps which can be used to answer thousands of questions, such as "show the most vulnerable seats". It can be used to predict the outcome of the next election and examine the results of previous elections. Results provided in the Professional Version include: - the 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019 UK General Elections, - the 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2021 London Mayoral and Assembly Elections, - the 2003, 2007, 2011,2016, 2017 and 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly Elections, - the 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2016 and 2021 Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly/Parliament Elections, - the 1984, 1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019 UK European Parliament Elections, - the 1997 and 2014 Scottish, and the 1997 and 2011 Welsh, Referendums, - the 2012 and 2016 Police and Crime Commissioner Elections, - the 2011 Alternative Vote Referendum, - the 1975 and 2016 European Referendums - estimates of what the 2019 UK General Election results might have been if fought using 2023 boundaries - hundreds of sets of local election results and summaries from 1990 to 2023. WHAT'S NEW IN UK-ELECT VERSION 12.4? ------------------------------------------------- Changes in UK-Elect 12.4.11 compared to version 12.3.0 are as follows: - Added support for forecasting the next UK General Election using the new (introduced in 2023) boundaries - A preliminary notional election includes estimates of what the 2019 UK General Election results might have been if the new 2023 UK boundaries had been used. - Includes summaries of the 2023 Local Election results, and a selection of the detailed council results. - Added ability to show/hide the chart window - Added ability to easily save and copy the currently displayed map to an image file - Added ability to easily add user-created maps to an election - Improved ability to copy highlighted data from the constituency list to the clipboard - Multiple corrections and enhancements to built-in web browser functionality - Corrections to STV simulation functionality - Corrections to constituency renumbering functionality - Many necessary changes to improve support for the 2023+ UK boundaries - Many enhancements to map colouring and tooltip functionality (e.g. can now flood by replacing colour in contiguous pixels) - Many enhancements to editing and deleting of map hotspots - Added option to show map marker for the currently selected constituency only - Added ability to colour maps according to changes, swings etc. compared to a user-specified election. - Added ability to delete UK-Elect backup files (new command on the file menu) - Now avoids unnecessary creation and saving of files (e.g. empty or default by-election and new data files) - Added optional ability to display swings compared to older elections (as well as the most recent) - Enhanced the display, importing, and exporting of boundary change information - Reduced file size of many map image files without reducing image display quality within UK-Elect (in v12.4.1) - Allow the background colour of maps to be changeable (added in v12.4.2) - Further enhanced map saving functionality and map marker and colouring criteria (in v12.4.2 to v12.4.5) - Many minor bug fixes, data updates, and user interface improvements (in versions v12.4.0 to v12.4.5) - Updates to documentation (in versions v12.4.0 to v12.4.5) - Updates to by-election data files (in versions v12.4,0, v12.4.1, v12.4.2 and v12.4.5) - Allow summary map markers to be drawn on maps (introduced/enhanced in v12.4.2 to v12.4.5) - Allow full summary charts to be drawn on maps (in v12.4.3) - Added display of changes percentages to the results display (in in v12.4.5) - Now optionally uses the latest Microsoft web browser control (WebView2). This web-browser control, included in Windows 11, and found on most Windows 10 and some earlier systems, provides fully up-to-date compatibility with the latest websites. - The position of the web browser control within the main window is now configurable (in v12.4.7, enhanced in v12.4.8) - Many additional minor User Interface enhancements and corrections were included in versions in v12.4.8 to 12.4.10 - Fixed occasional crash loading an old election file (fixed in v12.4.8) - Fixed occasional missing refresh of overall summary after forecast (fixed in 12.4.9) - Added ability to synchronise UK-Elect constituencies with those browsed to within web-browser (added in 12.4.9) - Improvements to forecasting configuration after initial UK-Elect install, and to swing-based forecasting (added in 12.4.9) - Enhanced mousewheel support for zooming in and out on map, and dragging by holding down left mouse button (added in 12.4.10) - Added more 2023 boundary maps for the NW England, NE England, Yorkshire and The Humber, and East and West Midlands regions (12.4.11) WHAT WAS NEW IN UK-ELECT VERSION 12.3? --------------------------------------- Changes in UK-Elect 12.3 compared to version 12.2 are as follows: - Includes changes to forecasting methodology and user interface to cope better with 2022+ UK political situation - Includes 2022 Northern Ireland election results - Includes summaries of the 2022 Local Election results, and a selection of the detailed local results. - Minor bug fixes and user interface improvements - Updates to documentation WHAT WAS NEW IN UK-ELECT VERSION 12.2? --------------------------------------- Changes in UK-Elect 12.2 compared to version 12.1 are as follows: - Includes 2021 Scottish Parliament Results - Includes 2021 Welsh Parliament (Senedd Cymru) Results - Includes 2021 London Mayoral and Assembly Results - Includes a summary of the 2021 Local Election results - Includes changes to forecasting methodology and user interface to cope better with 2021+ UK political situation - Minor bug fixes and user interface improvements - Updates to documentation WHAT WAS NEW IN UK-ELECT VERSION 12.1? --------------------------------------- Changes in UK-Elect 12.1 compared to version 12.0 are as follows: - Includes changes to forecasting methodology and user interface to cope better with 2020+ UK political situation - Includes candidates lists for the Scottish, Welsh and London elections in 2021 - Minor bug fixes and user interface improvements - Updates to documentation WHAT WAS NEW IN UK-ELECT VERSION 12.0? --------------------------------------- Changes in UK-Elect 12.0 compared to version 11.45 are as follows: - Includes 2019 UK General Election Results - Includes changes to forecasting methodology and user interface to cope better with new UK political situation - Minor bug fixes and user interface improvements - Updates to documentation WHAT WAS NEW IN UK-ELECT VERSION 11.45? --------------------------------------- Changes in UK-Elect 11.45 compared to version 11.4 are as follows: - Includes support for pacts between parties at the local level (configured as part of candidates lists) - Includes support for polls where voters were prompted with the lists of candidates in their constituencies (allows more accurate forecasting) - Includes candidate lists for 2019 General Election (check www.ukelect.co.uk for any further updates) - Minor bug fixes and user interface improvements - Updates to documentation WHAT WAS NEW IN UK-ELECT VERSION 11.4? -------------------------------------- Changes in UK-Elect 11.4 compared to version 11.3 are as follows: - Significant further enhancements aimed at improving forecasting in the current political situation. - Party configuration now includes options for configuring Brexit Leave and Remain support percentages. These represent the percentage of supporters of that party that are significantly inclined towards Leave or Remain. - An option is provided on the forecasting menu to "Use Brexit Tactical Voting". If this is enabled then forecasting will assume that a percentage of people will vote tactically for either Leave or Remain supporting parties based on their stance on Brexit. The amount of this tactical voting will depend on the local constituency situation (whether inclined to leave or remain, and the anticipated margins between 1st, 2nd and 3rd parties) and on the overall Brexit importance to voters value (set by the option on the forecasting configuration dialog). - The default setting for overall Brexit importance to voters has been increased to 8/10 (extremely important). - Minor bug fixes and user interface improvements - Includes updated parliamentary by-elections and changes of party - Updates to documentation WHAT WAS NEW IN UK-ELECT VERSION 11.3? -------------------------------------- Changes in UK-Elect 11.3 compared to version 11.2 are as follows: - Includes 2019 UK European Parliament Results - Further major improvements to forecasting in the current political situation: - Includes 2016 Brexit Referendum leave percentage estimates / results for each UK constituency - Uses Brexit leave percentage when forecasting each constituency result - Can optionally view Brexit leave and remain percentage estimates / results on maps - Includes summary of 2019 UK local election results - Adds ability to display / import / export constituency data using second ID (typically ONS/GSS code) - Adds ONS/GSS constituency codes (as second ID) to current General Election constituencies - Minor bug fixes and user interface improvements - Includes updated parliamentary by-elections and changes of party - Updates to documentation WHAT WAS NEW IN UK-ELECT VERSION 11.2? -------------------------------------- Changes in UK-Elect 11.2 compared to version 11.1 are as follows: - Added support for Change UK - The Independent Group and the Brexit Party - Greatly enhanced ability to automatically add parties to constituencies during forecasting - Made significant changes to UK-Elect forecasting method to cope better with new parties - Allow filtering of constituencies by party position for forecast election results - Significant improvements to ability to add candidates for Party List (e.g. European) elections - Includes 2019 UK European Parliament candidate list - Minor bug fixes and performance optimisations - Updates to documentation WHAT WAS NEW IN UK-ELECT VERSION 11.1? -------------------------------------- Changes in UK-Elect 11.1 compared to version 11.0 are as follows: - Added Selection of 2018 Local Election Results - Adjusted some General Election forecasting configuration ready for next election! - Updated some default web references - Minor bug fixes and performance optimisations - Updates to documentation WHAT WAS NEW IN UK-ELECT VERSION 11.0? -------------------------------------- Changes in UK-Elect 11.0 compared to version 10.4 are as follows: - Added 2017 General Election Results - Adjusted some General Election forecasting configuration ready for next election! - Minor bug fixes and performance optimisations - Updates to documentation FURTHER ENHANCEMENTS ------------------- UK-Elect is continually being enhanced, and this version contains enhancements which may not all yet be described in the manual. WHO WILL WIN? ------------- To forecast the next General Election result in 5 easy steps... 1. Select the "2019 UK General Election" option from the UK-Elect menu on the Windows Start/Programs menu 2. Select the "Opinion Poll Percentages" option from the "Forecast" menu 3. Enter the latest opinion poll percentages and click on the "OK" button 4. Select the "Opinion Poll Based Forecast" option on the Forecast menu 5. Adjust the map, filter and sort settings as desired. If the forecast results themselves aren't as desired then repeat steps 2 to 5, increasing the poll percentage for the most favoured party until an acceptable result (e.g. an absolute majority or your own election) is achieved. Alternatively, short-circuit this process by simply typing in the desired number of seats using the "Forecast / Match seats" option... UK-Elect is a very powerful forecasting and election analysis tool. But have fun using it! UK-ELECT ADDRESSES ------------------ email: support@ukelect.co.uk web page: www.ukelect.co.uK facebook: www.facebook.com/ukelect twitter: www.twitter.com/ukelect