UK-Elect December 2000 Forecast:

This month, the forecast is based on currently expected percentages for the time of the next election. The percentage used was Lab 40%, Con 35%, Lib Dem 17%, Nationalists 3%. These figures reflect a continuing Labour lead, which was disturbed only by the September fuel price protests.

Overall, these forecast results show that Labour can confidently hope for a substantial lead in terms of seats at the next election.

Party Seats Change
Labour 372 -46
Conservative 217 +52
Liberal Democrat 40 -6
Ulster Unionist 10 -
Scottish National Party 7 +1
SDLP 3 -
Plaid Cymru 4 -
Sinn Fein 2 -
DUP 2 -
UKU 1 -

Notes: A simple uniform percentage swing method was used, and applied to GB constituencies only. No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only. Base of forecast was constituency situation at 23/12/2000.


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