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UK-Elect April 2001 Forecast:

This month, the percentages used for the opinion-poll based forecast were Lab 50%, Con 30%, Lib Dem 14%, Nationalists 3%. This represents an average of recent opinion polls, slightly adjusted for actual local results. This month more allowance was made for tactical voting than previously - the assumption was made that up to 15% of voters are prepared to vote tactically where the conditions are right, and that such tactical voting will predominently continue to be anti-Conservative. In the forecast this tactical voting had the effect of enabling the Liberal Democrats to retain most of their previous General Election gains, and to even win a few more seats from the Conservatives.

As before, we do not expect these to be the actual figures at the time of the next election, as opinion polls tend to inflate the Labour lead compared to real elections. However, they do suggest that the Conservatives need to recover very quickly from their current poll ratings if they are to avoid another landslide defeat.

Party Seats Change
Labour 464 +46
Conservative 121 -44
Liberal Democrat 45 -1
Ulster Unionist 10 -
Scottish National Party 6 -
SDLP 3 -
Plaid Cymru 3 -1
Sinn Fein 2 -
DUP 2 -
UKU 1 -
Labour Overall Majority 271 +92
Forecast for Wales Forecast for Scottish Highlands  
Forecast for South West England Forecast for UK  
Forecast Gains for UK Forecast for London  

Notes: A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. This month, an allowance for tactical voting was applied to the figures, the assumption being made that 15% of voters would be prepared to vote tactically against the Conservatives in a situation where the 1st/2nd contest between them and another party was fairly close (within 20%), and the 3rd party was more than 10% further behind. The forecast base was the 1997 General Election constituency situation. No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.

 

 

 

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