UK-Elect January 2001 Forecast:

This month, the forecast is based on approximate current opinion poll percentages. The percentages used were Lab 48%, Con 33%, Lib Dem 13%, Nationalists 3%.

We do not expect these to be the actual figures at the time of the next election, as opinion polls tend to inflate the Labour lead compared to real elections. However, it is a possibility, and the results of forecasting using these figures are certainly interesting.

Party Seats Change
Labour 432 +15
Conservative 167 +2
Liberal Democrat 30 -16
Ulster Unionist 10 -
Scottish National Party 6 -
SDLP 3 -
Plaid Cymru 4 -
Sinn Fein 2 -
DUP 2 -
UKU 1 -

Notes: A simple uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. The forecast base was the 1997 General Election constituency situation, but the Gains/Losses comparison refers to the situation at 20/01/2001 (and because of the uniform swing this leads a few minor oddities, such as the reported gain for the "old" speaker, but the overall result should not be affected). No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.



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