UK-Elect Forecast for General Election 2001:

This forecast is our current prediction for the June 7th 2001 General Election. The percentages used were Lab 44%, Con 33%, Lib Dem 17%, Nationalists 3%. For a constituency-by-constituency forecast of seats changing hands see the detailed forecast of seats gained and detailed forecast for marginal seats.

UK-Elect Forecast for 2001 Best Prospects for Labour Gains Best Prospects for Conservative Gains Best Prospects for Liberal Democrat Gains

Party Seats Change
Labour 415 -4
Conservative 165 -
Liberal Democrat 50 +4
Ulster Unionist 10 -
Scottish National Party 6 -
SDLP 3 -
Plaid Cymru 4 -
Sinn Fein 2 -
DUP 2 -
UKU 1 -
Labour Majority 171 -8
Forecast for Wales Forecast for Scottish Highlands  
Forecast for South West England Forecast for UK  
Forecast Gains for UK Forecast for London  

Notes: A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. Tactical voting assumptions were applied as follows: it was assumed that up to 15% of the population would be prepared to vote tactically, and would do so if the party voted against tactically was 1st or 2nd and the gap between 1st and 2nd parties was less than 20%, and the gap between 2nd and 3rd more than 10%. It was also assumed that the party voted against tactically would continue to be the Conservatives (in accordance with recent by-election and other results). The forecast base was the 1997 General Election constituency situation. It was assumed that the Conservatives would regain Tatton although no detailed forecast was possible for the seat. No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.



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