UK-Elect May 2001 Opinion Poll Based Forecast:

The percentages used for this latest opinion-poll based forecast were Lab 47%, Con 30%, Lib Dem 17%, Nationalists 3%. This is near the average of recent opinion polls. The assumption was again made that up to 15% of voters are prepared to vote tactically where the conditions are right, and that such tactical voting will predominantly continue to be anti-Conservative. In the forecast this tactical voting had the effect of enabling the Liberal Democrats and Labour to win a few more seats from the Conservatives.

As before, we do not expect these to be the actual figures at the time of the next election, as opinion polls tend to inflate the Labour lead compared to real elections. However, they do suggest that the Conservatives are now in real danger of another landslide defeat.

Party Seats Change
Labour 450 +32
Conservative 129 -36
Liberal Democrat 51 +5
Ulster Unionist 10 -
Scottish National Party 6 -
Plaid Cymru 4 -
SDLP 3 -
Sinn Fein 2 -
DUP 2 -
UKU 1 -
Labour Overall Majority 243 +64
Forecast for Wales Forecast for Scottish Highlands  
Forecast for South West England Forecast for UK  
Forecast Gains for UK Forecast for London  

Notes: A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. This month, an allowance for tactical voting was applied to the figures, the assumption being made that 15% of voters would be prepared to vote tactically against the Conservatives in a situation where the 1st/2nd contest between them and another party was fairly close (within 20%), and the 3rd party was more than 10% further behind. The forecast base was the 1997 General Election constituency situation. No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.




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