UK-Elect Forecast for September 2002:

This forecast is our current prediction for the next General Election. The percentages used were Lab 47%, Con 30%, Lib Dem 18%, Nationalists 3%, which represent approximate May/September 2002 national opinion poll percentages, slightly adjusted to take account of the result of recent local elections.

Party Seats Change
Labour 436 +25
Conservative 142 -24
Liberal Democrat 53 -
Ulster Unionist 6 -
DUP 5 -
Scottish National Party 4 -1
Sinn Fein 4 -
Plaid Cymru 4 -
SDLP 3 -
Ind 1 -
Speaker 1 -
Labour Majority 215 +50
Forecast for Wales Forecast for Scottish Highlands  
Forecast for South West England Forecast for UK  
Forecast Gains for UK Forecast for London  

Notes: A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. Tactical voting assumptions were applied as follows: it was assumed that up to 10% of the population would be prepared to vote tactically, and would do so if the party voted against tactically was 1st or 2nd and the gap between 1st and 2nd parties was less than 20%, and the gap between 2nd and 3rd more than 10%. It was also assumed that the party voted against tactically would continue to be the Conservatives. The forecast base was the 2001 General Election constituency situation, but changes shown are compared to the current political situation (rather than the 2001 election). No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.



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