UK-Elect Forecast for October 2003:

This forecast is based primarily on recent opinion polls. It is not intended to represent what we expect will actually happen at the next General Election (although it is a possibility), but should show what would happen if people did vote the same way as in the recent polls. The percentages used were Lab 35%, Con 32%, Lib Dem 25%, Nationalists 2.5%.

Party Seats Change
Labour 383 -27
Conservative 181 +15
Liberal Democrat 66 +12
Ulster Unionist 6 -
DUP 5 -
Plaid Cymru 5 +1
Scottish National Party 4 -1
Sinn Fein 4 -
SDLP 3 -
Ind 1 -
Speaker 1 -
Labour majority 109  
Forecast for Wales Forecast for Scottish Highlands  
Forecast for South West England Forecast for UK  
Forecast Gains for UK Forecast for London  

Notes: A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. The forecast base was the 2001 General Election constituency situation, but changes shown are compared to the current political situation (rather than the 2001 election). No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.


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