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UK-Elect Forecast for November 2004:

This forecast is the November 2004 UK-Elect forecast for the next General Election. (Click here for the latest forecast.) It is intended to represent what we currently expect will actually happen at the next General Election  (although major events, e.g. wars or resignation of a party leader would of course affect the totals). Previous UK-Elect forecasts of this type, based on anticipated voting trends (as opposed to current opinion polls) have been quite accurate. Those before the 2001 election were within a few seats for all parties.

The percentages used were Lab 34%, Con 32%, Lib Dem 22%, Nationalists 2.5%.

The main change over the last year is a slow reduction in the anticipated total share of the vote won by the two main parties, and a slight increase in the Liberal Democrat vote.

For the third time in a UK-Elect forecast the assumption is made that the balance of tactical voting will be against Labour. This is in reaction to the after-effects of the Iraq War and a series of unpopular policies such as tuition fees. The combination of these factors will, in our judgement, create enough anger in a small proportion of the electorate (15% is assumed) to persuade them to vote for anyone who can defeat the local Labour MP.

Party Seats Change
Labour 358 -51
Conservative 201 +35
Liberal Democrat 68 +13
Scottish National Party 7 +2
Ulster Unionist 6 -
DUP 5 -
Plaid Cymru 5 +1
Sinn Fein 4 -
SDLP 3 -
Ind 1 -
Speaker 1 -
Labour Majority 59  
Forecast for Wales Forecast for Scottish Highlands  
Forecast for South West England Forecast for UK  
Forecast Gains for UK Forecast for London  

Notes: A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. The assumption was made that up to 15% of the electorate would be prepared to consider voting tactically against the Labour Party. The forecast base was the 2001 General Election constituency situation, but changes shown are compared to the current political situation (rather than the 2001 election). No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only. Proposed boundary changes are not included in these calculations, but would be likely to have the effect of producing a moderate reduction in the number of Labour seats (e.g. by 10 to 20 seats).

 

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