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UK-Elect Forecast, May 12th 2005. This is the first forecast of the 2005+ parliament, and should be regarded as "for fun only" as it is still too early for any serious forecast of the 2009/2010 election.

For the purpose of this forecast we have assumed that the Conservative recovery of recent elections will continue, at a slightly faster pace, but that this will be partly offset by Labour winning back some of their voters from the Liberal Democrats, leading to a tie in votes between the two biggest parties.

The percentages used for this forecast are therefore Lab 36%, Con 36%, Lib Dem 20%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.  (If you prefer to forecast using your own percentages, the current opinion polls, or with a lower/higher level of tactical voting, download a trial version or browse the UK-Elect on-line shop.

Also, if you would like to forecast the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or your own local election, as well as the General Election, then click here to purchase

In this election simulation we assume that, after 12 or more years, there will continue to be some anti-government sentiment, and that therefore a maximum of 10% of people would be prepared to vote tactically against Labour in the right circumstances. (It should be emphasised that this figure is not the number that we think will vote tactically, simply the maximum number who would be prepared to do so if they lived in a constituency where the circumstances were right.) This tactical voting calculation is also now adjusted to take more account of party second-preferences (e.g. both Labour and Conservative supporters are more likely to be prepared to vote tactically for the Liberal Democrats than for each other.)

Taking all these factors into account, the current UK-Elect forecast for General Election 2009/2010  is:

Party

Seats

Changefrom2005 election
Labour 333 -22
Conservative 228 +30
Liberal Democrat 52 -10
DUP 9 -
Scottish National Party 7 +1
Sinn Fein 5 -
Plaid Cymru 4 +1
SDLP 3 -
UUP 1 -
Others 3 -
Speaker 1 -
Labour Majority 21 -44
Forecast for South West England Forecast for Scotland  
Forecast for Wales Forecast for UK  
Forecast for London Forecast Gains  

Click on image to enlarge

Note: Labour majority shown above simply excludes the Speaker, Michael Martin,  from the calculation. If the Speaker is treated as opposition MP then the majority is 20, if he is treated as a government MP (because Michael Martin was elected as a Labour MP, and because the Speaker normally votes with the Government in the event of a tie) then the majority is 22.

Notes: The forecast base was the 2005 General Election constituency situation - it should be noted that many constituency boundaries will change before the next election. A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. The assumption was made that up to 10% of the electorate would be prepared to consider voting tactically against the Labour Party (Note to UK-Elect users: the simulation was set to take account of party vote transfer preferences. The number of iterations was set to 3.) No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only. The Labour majority figure here simply excludes the speaker from the calculation (Note: normally, in the event of a tie, the Speaker will vote with the Government.)

 

 

 

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