UK-Elect General Election Forecast, November 20th 2019.
Conservative Overall Majority of 64.
In this UK-Elect General Election forecast, which uses a considerably enhanced method that fine-tunes support for the parties based on the actual candidates in each constituency, plus any local constituency polls, and a wide range of other factors such as the level of support for Brexit in each constituency, the Conservatives are projected to win 356 seats giving them a majority of 64. This gives them 162 more than the Labour Party's 194 seats with the Scottish National Party on 49 seats, the Liberal Democrats 26, the Democratic Unionist Party 10, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 5, Green 1 and Others 2.
The UK-Elect v11.45 method was used for the forecast, using overall GB-wide percentages combined with separate Scottish, Welsh, and London percentages, with Brexit-specific tactical voting enabled. Candidate-specific settings (including actual candidates in each constituency and pacts between parties at local constituency level) were also utilised, as were the final candidates lists.The current recommended default Brexit forecasting settings were used, which sets Brexit electoral importance to 8/10 ("Extremely Important" to most voters). This method takes account of Brexit leave and remain support levels within each constituency and each party. These levels can optionally be configured by users to take account of any change in the political situation.
Detailed predictions for every constituency are available in a CSV file (suitable for use in Excel etc.) here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.
This latest UK-Elect version is currently still available as a Beta version for free download. See UK-Elect Beta Offer for details.
The GB percentages used were: Con 42.00%, Lab 30.00%, LD 15.00%, Brexit 4.00%, SNP 3.50%, Grn 3.00%. Scottish percentages used were: SNP 40.00%, Con 23.00%, Lab 18.00%, LD 12.00%, Brexit 3.00%, Grn 3.00%. Welsh percentages used were: Lab 35.00%, Con 33.00%, PC 12.00%, LD 11.00%, Brexit 5.00%, Grn 3.00%. London percentages used were: Lab 42.00%, Con 31.00%, LD 19.00%, Grn 4.00%, Brexit 3.00%, UKIP 0.50%. All percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls. Adjusting forecasting percentages to take account of the date of the election was not enabled.
One factor of interest is that current opinion polls are currently fluid, with values for the key parties varying considerably between polling organisations and also from poll to poll. This could make an enormous difference to any prediction.
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A UK-Elect Beta version is currently (20th November 2019) available for free download. See UK-Elect Beta Offer for details of Beta versions.
See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques.
Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on firstname.lastname@example.org.
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