UK-Elect Forecast for October 2003:
This forecast is based primarily on recent opinion polls. It is not intended to represent what we expect will actually happen at the next General Election (although it is a possibility), but should show what would happen if people did vote the same way as in the recent polls. The percentages used were Lab 35%, Con 32%, Lib Dem 25%, Nationalists 2.5%.
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Notes: The maps, graphics, results and predictions included on this web site were all produced by UK-Elect. A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. The forecast base was the 2001 General Election constituency situation, but changes shown are compared to the current political situation (rather than the 2001 election). No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.
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