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"What If" Forecast 5 - What if Tactical Voting explodes? This is a special UK-Elect forecast examining "What would happen if tactical voting explodes?" (See also What if the Tories overtook Labour in votes? What if the Liberal Democrat vote surged? What if the Labour vote slumped?, What if the Tories reach 40%? and What if main Parties get equal votes?) It is again based on the new Scottish parliamentary boundaries, and intended to represent one possibility for what will actually happen at the next General Election. It is, however, not our current forecast - simply intended to examine in detail what would happen if there was a significant - and anti-Labour - tactical vote. Unlike our other "What If" scenarios this one includes three separate forecasts, one using a simple uniform swing, and one repeating the forecast, but assuming that around a third (35%) of electors would be prepared to vote tactically if they happened to live in a constituency where the circumstances were right. It should be emphasised that also this 35% figure may seem unreasonably high, it represents a maximum of people prepared to vote tactically where the circumstances are right, and the actual number voting tactically in the simulation is far lower. The final forecast is similar, but takes account of likely party vote transfer preferences - i.e. an estimate of voters preferred 2nd choice party (e.g. both Labour and Conservative supporters may prefer the Liberal Democrats to each other.) The percentages used for this simulation were Con 37%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 21%, Nationalists 2.5%. For all these forecasts see the notes below for details of majority calculations, etc. This simulation shows that anti-Labour tactical voting could make a big difference to the election result. Forecast 1 - Simple Uniform Swing
This forecast shows that on a "traditional" simple uniform swing Labour could still just about expect to achieve a majority on the percentages specified.
The next forecast examined the effect of anti-Labour tactical voting...
Forecast 2 - Uniform Swing, plus 35% of people prepared to consider voting tactically anti-Labour
This forecast scenario clearly demonstrates the powerful effect that tactical voting could have on the next election result. It also shows some possible unexpected consequences. The electoral simulation was set up to achieve the specified target percentages, but configured so that the most likely non-Labour winner in each constituency was chosen to receive any tactical votes. This meant, in most constituencies, the Conservative candidate.
The following map shows which party came second in seats where Labour came first in 2001 (adjusted for boundary changes):
Dumfries and Galloway could possibly be added to the list, as the boundary changes leave it too close to call, but again, it is the Conservatives, not the Liberal Democrats that are fighting Labour for the seat (although the SNP are also in with a chance). The constituencies are colour-coded by the strength of the 2nd party's lead over the third - the overall impression of a lot of deep blue and not much somewhat paler yellow, generally in urban areas, represents a fundamental political reality.
As a result of all these extra tactical votes, after the initial first-pass of the simulation the Conservative vote percentage was too high relative to its target (i.e. significantly above 37%) and had to be adjusted slightly downwards - which meant, when the correct target percentages were achieved, that the Liberal Democrats gained a few seats from the Conservatives!
It is probably somewhat unlikely that anti-Labour tactical voting will be completely non party-specific. In reality, many people are more likely to vote tactically for the Liberal Democrats against Labour (where appropriate) than for the Conservatives against Labour (where appropriate).
The final forecasting simulation takes account of party 2nd-choice preferences (e.g. both Labour and Conservative supporters may prefer the Liberal Democrats to each other.)
Forecast 3 - As above, taking account of voter 2nd-choice party preferences
This forecast is perhaps closest to the reality of tactical voting - a somewhat messy situation where the effects are not always intuitive, where the likely main beneficiaries are the Liberal Democrats, and where Labour is protected from excessive damage by a reluctance from many otherwise potentially tactical voters to vote Conservative, even though - or because - the Tories are the challengers in most marginal seats.
From time to time in the next few weeks we will feature other "what if" scenarios. To make your own "what if" forecasts, try using our "free for 3" UK-Elect v5.5GE Trial Version download. To forecast any constituency in any British election (General, Scottish, Welsh, London, UK European or your local council) - order UK-Elect: Available products and prices Notes: The maps, graphics, results and predictions included on this web site were all produced by UK-Elect. A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. The assumption was made that a maximum of the specified % of the electorate would be prepared to consider voting tactically against the Labour Party. (Note for UK-Elect users: "max iterations" was set to 3 for forecasts 2 and 3, and the tactical voter percentage was doubled for forecast 3, as the maximum party vote transfer 2nd-choice percentage was set to 50%) The forecast base was the 2001 General Election constituency situation, adjusted to take account of the new Scottish parliamentary boundaries. Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only. The "change from adjusted current situation" column represents the change from the the current situation if the latest boundary changes are taken into consideration. The "Labour Majority" and "Labour Short By" figures here simply exclude the Speaker from the total of MPs. What if the Tories overtook Labour in votes? What if the Liberal Democrat vote surged? What if the Labour vote slumped? What if the Tories reach 40%? What if Tactical Voting explodes? What if main Parties get equal votes? April 1992 May 1997 Apr 2000 Dec 2000 April 2001 May 2001 June 2001 (Forecast) June 2001 Dec 2001 Apr 2002 Sep 2002 May 2003 Oct 2003 Feb 2004 July 2004 Nov 2004 Jan 2005 Feb 2005 Mar 2005 Latest Forecast |
