UK-Elect February 2001 Forecast:

This month, the percentages used for the opinion-poll based forecast were Lab 47%, Con 32%, Lib Dem 15%, Nationalists 3%. This represents the approximate average of recent opinion polls, slightly adjusted for actual local results as included in the Kellner-Sanders index (see www.yougov.com)

We do not expect these to be the actual figures at the time of the next election, as opinion polls tend to inflate the Labour lead compared to real elections. However, it is a possibility, and the results of forecasting using these figures certainly continue to be interesting.

Party Seats Change Labour 431 +13 Conservative 162 -3 Liberal Democrat 37 -9 Ulster Unionist 10 - Scottish National Party 6 - SDLP 3 - Plaid Cymru 4 - Sinn Fein 2 - DUP 2 - UKU 1 - Labour Overall Majority 205 +26

Notes: A simple uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. The forecast base was the 1997 General Election constituency situation. No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.