UK-Elect Forecast for May 2003:

This forecast is based primarily on recent local, Scottish and Welsh elections. It is not intended to represent what we expect will actually happen at the next General Election, as votes at UK level differ from local elections, but should show what would happen if people did vote the same way. The percentages used were Lab 30%, Con 35%, Lib Dem 26%, Nationalists 2.5%.

Party Seats Change Labour 309 -102 Conservative 252 +86 Liberal Democrat 68 +15 Ulster Unionist 6 - DUP 5 - Scottish National Party 5 - Plaid Cymru 5 +1 Sunn Fein 4 - SDLP 3 - Ind 1 - Speaker 1 - Labour Short By 21 -204

Notes: A uniform percentage swing method was used, and the percentages were applied to GB constituencies only. The forecast base was the 2001 General Election constituency situation, but changes shown are compared to the current political situation (rather than the 2001 election). No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.