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Best Prospects for Conservative Gains in 2001

This chart shows the top 100 prospects for Conservative gains in 2001, sorted from easiest to most difficult.

UK-Elect Forecast for June 2001 Best Prospects for Labour Gains Best Prospects for Conservative Gains Best Prospects for Liberal Democrat Gains

Pos.

Constituency

Winner

Votes

Gain Info.

Majority

Swing Info.

1

Torbay

Adrian Sanders

LDm 21094 Con 21082 Lab 7923 UKInd 1962 Lib 1161 RDrm 100

LDm gain from Con

12 (0.02%)

Swing Con to LDm 5.05%

2

Kingston & Surbiton

Edward Davey

LDm 20411 Con 20355 Lab 12811 Ref 1470 UKInd 418 RDrm 100 NLP 100

LDm gain from Con

56 (0.10%)

Swing Con to LDm 13.60%

3

Somerton & Frome

David Heath

LDm 22684 Con 22554 Lab 9385 Ref 2449 UKInd 331

LDm gain from Con

130 (0.23%)

Swing Con to LDm 3.68%

4

Wellingborough

Paul Stinchcombe

Lab 24854 Con 24667 LDm 5279 UKInd 1192 NLP 297

Lab gain from Con

187 (0.33%)

Swing Con to Lab 9.93%

5

Kettering

Philip Sawford

Lab 24650 Con 24461 LDm 6098 Ref 1551 NLP 197

Lab gain from Con

189 (0.33%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.57%

6

Milton Keynes North East

Brian White

Lab 20201 Con 19961 LDm 8907 Ref 1492 Grn 576 NLP 99

Lab gain from Con

240 (0.47%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.19%

7

Rugby & Kenilworth

Andy King

Lab 26356 Con 25861 LDm 8737 NLP 251

Lab gain from Con

495 (0.81%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.61%

8

Northampton South

Tony Clark

Lab 24214 Con 23470 LDm 6316 Ref 1405 UKInd 1159 NLP 541

Lab gain from Con

744 (1.30%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.38%

9

Romford

Mrs Eileen Gordon

Lab 18187 Con 17538 LDm 3341 Ref 1431 Lib 1100 BNP 522

Lab gain from Con

649 (1.54%)

Swing Con to Lab 15.65%

10

Eastleigh

David Chidgey

LDm 19453 Con 18699 Lab 14883 Ref 2013 UKInd 446

LDm gain from Con

754 (1.36%)

Swing Con to LDm 11.26%

11

Lancaster & Wyre

Hilton Dawson

Lab 25173 Con 23878 LDm 6802 Ref 1516 Grn 795 UKInd 698

Lab gain from Con

1295 (2.20%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.64%

12

Norfolk North West

Dr George Turner

Lab 25250 Con 23911 LDm 5513 Ref 2923

Lab gain from Con

1339 (2.32%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.42%

13

Castle Point

Christine Butler

Lab 20605 Con 19489 LDm 4477 Ref 2700 IDCP 1301

Lab gain from Con

1116 (2.30%)

Swing Con to Lab 16.93%

14

Harrow West

Gareth Thomas

Lab 21811 Con 20571 LDm 8127 Ref 1997

Lab gain from Con

1240 (2.36%)

Swing Con to Lab 17.52%

15

Harwich

Ivan Henderson

Lab 20740 Con 19524 LDm 7037 Ref 4923 CRP 1290

Lab gain from Con

1216 (2.27%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.61%

16

Weston-Super-Mare

Brian Cotter

LDm 21407 Con 20133 Lab 9557 Ref 2280

LDm gain from Con

1274 (2.39%)

Swing Con to LDm 5.96%

17

Braintree

Alan Hurst

Lab 23729 Con 22278 LDm 6418 Ref 2165 Grn 712 NewWay 274

Lab gain from Con

1451 (2.61%)

Swing Con to Lab 12.86%

18

Lewes

Norman Baker

LDm 21250 Con 19950 Lab 5232 Ref 2481 UKInd 256

LDm gain from Con

1300 (2.64%)

Swing Con to LDm 7.43%

19

Bristol West

Valerie Davey

Lab 22068 Con 20575 LDm 17551 Ref 1304 Grn 852 SocLab 244 NLP 47

Lab gain from Con

1493 (2.38%)

Swing Con to Lab 12.08%

20

Enfield Southgate

Stephen Twigg

Lab 20570 Con 19137 LDm 4966 Ref 1342 CDem 289 Mal 229

Lab gain from Con

1433 (3.08%)

Swing Con to Lab 17.40%

21

Devon West & Torridge

John Burnett

LDm 24744 Con 22787 Lab 7319 Ref 1946 UKInd 1841 Lib 508

LDm gain from Con

1957 (3.31%)

Swing Con to LDm 4.36%

22

Northavon

Prof Steven Webb

LDm 26500 Con 24363 Lab 9767 Ref 1900

LDm gain from Con

2137 (3.42%)

Swing Con to LDm 10.37%

23

Shrewsbury & Atcham

Paul Marsden

Lab 20484 Con 18814 LDm 13838 Ref 1346 UKInd 477 CFSS 257 PPP 128

Lab gain from Con

1670 (3.02%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.40%

24

Colchester

Bob Russell

LDm 17886 Con 16305 Lab 15891 Ref 1776 NLP 148

LDm gain from Con

1581 (3.04%)

Swing Con to LDm 6.19%

25

Taunton

Mrs Jackie Ballard

LDm 26064 Con 23621 Lab 8248 Ref 2760 BNP 318

LDm gain from Con

2443 (4.00%)

Swing Con to LDm 4.60%

26

Gillingham

Paul Clark

Lab 20187 Con 18207 LDm 9649 Ref 1492 UKInd 590 Lny 305 BNP 195 NLP 58

Lab gain from Con

1980 (3.91%)

Swing Con to Lab 16.02%

27

Sittingbourne & Sheppey

Derek Wyatt

Lab 18723 Con 16794 LDm 8447 Ref 1082 Lny 644 UKInd 472

Lab gain from Con

1929 (4.18%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.52%

28

Sutton & Cheam

Paul Burstow

LDm 19919 Con 17822 Lab 7280 Ref 1784 UKInd 191 NLP 96

LDm gain from Con

2097 (4.45%)

Swing Con to LDm 12.94%

29

Stroud

David Drew

Lab 26170 Con 23260 LDm 9502 Grn 3415

Lab gain from Con

2910 (4.67%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.76%

30

Richmond Park

Dr Jenny Tonge

LDm 25393 Con 22442 Lab 7172 Ref 1467 Lny 204 NLP 102 RDrm 73

LDm gain from Con

2951 (5.19%)

Swing Con to LDm 9.69%

31

Carshalton & Wallington

Thomas Brake

LDm 18490 Con 16223 Lab 11565 Ref 1289 Grn 377 BNP 261 UKInd 218

LDm gain from Con

2267 (4.68%)

Swing Con to LDm 11.76%

32

Clwyd West

Gareth Thomas

Lab 14918 Con 13070 PC 5421 LDm 5151 Ref 1114 Cvty 583

Lab gain from Con

1848 (4.59%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.10%

33

Warwick & Leamington

James Plaskitt

Lab 26747 Con 23349 LDm 7133 Ref 1484 Grn 764 UKInd 306 EDP 183 NLP 125

Lab gain from Con

3398 (5.65%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.98%

34

Newark

Fiona Jones

Lab 23496 Con 20480 LDm 5960 Ref 2035

Lab gain from Con

3016 (5.80%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.18%

35

Wirral West

Stephan Hesford

Lab 21035 Con 18297 LDm 5945 Ref 1613

Lab gain from Con

2738 (5.84%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.78%

36

Shipley

Christopher Leslie

Lab 22962 Con 19966 LDm 7984 Ref 1960

Lab gain from Con

2996 (5.67%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.79%

37

Chatham & Aylesford

Jonathon Shaw

Lab 21191 Con 18401 LDm 7389 Ref 1538 UKInd 493 NLP 149

Lab gain from Con

2790 (5.68%)

Swing Con to Lab 15.10%

38

Reading West

Martin Salter

Lab 21841 Con 18844 LDm 6153 Ref 976 BNP 320 UKInd 255

Lab gain from Con

2997 (6.19%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.96%

39

Finchley & Golders Green

Rudolph Vis

Lab 23180 Con 19991 LDm 5670 Ref 684 Grn 576 UKInd 205

Lab gain from Con

3189 (6.34%)

Swing Con to Lab 15.10%

40

Thanet South

Dr Stephen Ladyman

Lab 20777 Con 17899 LDm 5263 UKInd 631 Grn 418

Lab gain from Con

2878 (6.40%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.99%

41

Illford North

Linda Perham

Lab 23135 Con 19911 LDm 5049 BNP 750

Lab gain from Con

3224 (6.60%)

Swing Con to Lab 17.27%

42

Wrekin The

Peter Bradley

Lab 21243 Con 18218 LDm 5807

Lab gain from Con

3025 (6.68%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.27%

43

Wimbledon

Roger Casale

Lab 20674 Con 17694 LDm 8014 Ref 993 Grn 474 ProLife 346 MBBBQ 112 RDrm 47

Lab gain from Con

2980 (6.16%)

Swing Con to Lab 17.94%

44

Hemel Hempstead

Tony McWalter

Lab 25175 Con 21539 LDm 6789 Ref 1327 NLP 262

Lab gain from Con

3636 (6.60%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.96%

45

Upminster

Keith Darvill

Lab 19085 Con 16315 LDm 3919 Ref 2000

Lab gain from Con

2770 (6.70%)

Swing Con to Lab 15.74%

46

Falmouth & Cambourne

Candy Atherton

Lab 18151 Con 15463 LDm 13512 Ref 3534 IndL 1691 Lib 527 UKInd 355 MK 238 Lny 161

Lab gain from Con

2688 (5.01%)

Swing Con to Lab 6.36%

47

Putney

Anthony Coleman

Lab 20084 Con 17108 LDm 4739 Ref 1518 UKInd 233 Stan 101 SportsA 90 NLP 66 IndBeaut 49 RenDem 7

Lab gain from Con

2976 (6.76%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.18%

48

Selby

John Grogan

Lab 25838 Con 22002 LDm 6778 Ref 1162 UKInd 536

Lab gain from Con

3836 (6.81%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.14%

49

Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine

Sir Robert Smith

LDm 17742 Con 15080 SNP 5639 Lab 3923 Ref 805

LDm gain from Con

2662 (6.16%)

Swing Con to LDm 8.32%

50

Hastings & Rye

Michael Foster

Lab 16867 Con 14307 LDm 13717 Ref 2511 Lib 1046 UKInd 472 Lny 149

Lab gain from Con

2560 (5.22%)

Swing Con to Lab 18.52%

51

Hammersmith & Fulham

Iain Coleman

Lab 25262 Con 21420 LDm 4728 Ref 1023 NLab 695 Grn 562 UKInd 183 NLP 79 Care 74

Lab gain from Con

3842 (7.11%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.06%

52

Croydon Central

Geraint Davies

Lab 25432 Con 21535 LDm 6061 Ref 1886 Grn 595 UKInd 290

Lab gain from Con

3897 (6.98%)

Swing Con to Lab 15.48%

53

Bexleyheath & Crayford

Nigel Beard

Lab 21942 Con 18527 LDm 5391 Ref 1551 BNP 429 UKInd 383

Lab gain from Con

3415 (7.08%)

Swing Con to Lab 15.00%

54

Eastwood

Jim Murphy

Lab 20766 Con 17530 SNP 6826 LDm 6110 Ref 497 ProLife 393 UKInd 113

Lab gain from Con

3236 (6.20%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.34%

55

Gedling

Vernon Coaker

Lab 24390 Con 20588 LDm 5180 Ref 2006

Lab gain from Con

3802 (7.29%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.01%

56

Twickenham

Dr Vincent Cable

LDm 26237 Con 21956 Lab 9065 IndECR 589 RDrm 155 NLP 142

LDm gain from Con

4281 (7.36%)

Swing Con to LDm 8.80%

57

Brighton Kemptown

Desmond Turner

Lab 21479 Con 17945 LDm 4478 Ref 1526 SocLab 316 NLP 172 Lny 123 RDrm 93

Lab gain from Con

3534 (7.66%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.92%

58

Romsey

Sandra Gidley

LDm 19571 Con 16260 Lab 1451 UKInd 901 Ind 417 Ind 109

LDm gain from Con

3311 (8.55%)

Swing Con to LDm 12.56%

59

Dartford

Howard Stoate

Lab 25278 Con 20950 LDm 4827 BNP 428 FDP 287 CDem 228

Lab gain from Con

4328 (8.32%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.50%

60

Stafford

DAvid Kidney

Lab 24606 Con 20292 LDm 5480 Ref 1146 Lny 248

Lab gain from Con

4314 (8.33%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.74%

61

Reading East

Ms Jane Griffiths

Lab 21461 Con 17666 LDm 9307 Ref 1042 NLP 254 UKInd 252 BNP 238

Lab gain from Con

3795 (7.56%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.89%

62

Monmouth

Huw Edwards

Lab 23404 Con 19226 LDm 4689 Ref 1190 PC 516

Lab gain from Con

4178 (8.52%)

Swing Con to Lab 7.41%

63

Hove

Ivor Caplin

Lab 21458 Con 17499 LDm 4645 Ref 1931 IndC 1735 Grn 644 UKInd 209

Lab gain from Con

3959 (8.23%)

Swing Con to Lab 16.36%

64

Perth

Roseanna Cunningham

SNP 16209 Con 13068 Lab 11036 LDm 3583 Ref 366 UKInd 289

SNP gain from Con

3141 (7.05%)

Swing Con to SNP 6.56%

65

Leeds North West

Harold Best

Lab 19694 Con 15850 LDm 11689 Ref 1325 SocLab 335 ProLife 251 RRP 232

Lab gain from Con

3844 (7.79%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.77%

66

Ribble South

David Borrow

Lab 25856 Con 20772 LDm 5879 Ref 1475 Lib 1127 NLP 122

Lab gain from Con

5084 (9.20%)

Swing Con to Lab 12.11%

67

Wansdyke

Dan Norris

Lab 24117 Con 19318 LDm 9205 Ref 1327 UKInd 438 Lny 225 NLP 92

Lab gain from Con

4799 (8.77%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.36%

68

Portsmouth North

Syd Rapson

Lab 21339 Con 17016 LDm 4788 Ref 1757 UKInd 298 WsxReg 72

Lab gain from Con

4323 (9.55%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.53%

69

Tayside North

John Swinney

SNP 20447 Con 16287 Lab 5141 LDm 3716

SNP gain from Con

4160 (9.12%)

Swing Con to SNP 8.35%

70

Broxtowe

Nick Palmer

Lab 27343 Con 21768 LDm 6934 Ref 2092

Lab gain from Con

5575 (9.59%)

Swing Con to Lab 12.90%

71

Bradford West

Marsha Singh

Lab 18932 Con 15055 LDm 6737 SocLab 1551 Ref 1348 Grn 861 BNP 839 SP 245

Lab hold

3877 (8.51%)

Swing Lab to Con 5.45%

72

Isle of Wight

Dr Peter Brand

LDm 31274 Con 24868 Lab 9646 Ref 4734 UKInd 1072 IInd 848 Grn 544 NLP 87 RainIsl 86

LDm gain from Con

6406 (8.76%)

Swing Con to LDm 5.53%

73

Birmingham Edgbaston

Gisela Stuart

Lab 23554 Con 18712 LDm 4691 Ref 1065 BDP 443

Lab gain from Con

4842 (9.99%)

Swing Con to Lab 9.97%

74

Scarborough & Whitby

Lawrence Quinn

Lab 24791 Con 19667 LDm 7672 Ref 2191

Lab gain from Con

5124 (9.43%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.67%

75

Wolverhampton South West

Jenny Jones

Lab 24657 Con 19539 LDm 4012 Lib 713

Lab gain from Con

5118 (10.46%)

Swing Con to Lab 9.94%

76

Brent North

Barry Gardiner

Lab 19343 Con 15324 LDm 3104 NLP 204 RDrm 199

Lab gain from Con

4019 (10.53%)

Swing Con to Lab 18.83%

77

Colne Valley

Kali Mountford

Lab 23285 Con 18445 LDm 12755 SocLab 759 Grn 493 UKInd 478 Lny 196

Lab gain from Con

4840 (8.58%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.41%

78

St Albans

Kerry Pollard

Lab 21338 Con 16879 LDm 10692 Ref 1619 RDrm 166 NLP 111

Lab gain from Con

4459 (8.78%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.70%

79

Portsmouth South

Mike Hancock

LDm 20421 Con 16094 Lab 13086 Ref 1629 Lib 184 UKInd 141 NLP 140

LDm gain from Con

4327 (8.37%)

Swing Con to LDm 4.41%

80

Gravesham

Chris Pond

Lab 26460 Con 20681 LDm 4128 Ref 1441 Ind 414 NLP 129

Lab gain from Con

5779 (10.85%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.01%

81

Devon North

Nick Harvey

LDm 27824 Con 21643 Lab 5367

LDm hold

6181 (11.27%)

Swing Con to LDm 4.95%

82

Battersea

Martin Linton

Lab 24047 Con 18687 LDm 3482 Ref 804 UKInd 250 RDrm 127

Lab gain from Con

5360 (11.31%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.21%

83

Welwyn Hatfield

Melanie Johnson

Lab 24936 Con 19341 LDm 7161 RA 1263 ProLife 267

Lab gain from Con

5595 (10.56%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.05%

84

Loughborough

Andrew Reed

Lab 25448 Con 19736 LDm 6190 Ref 991

Lab gain from Con

5712 (10.91%)

Swing Con to Lab 8.94%

85

Burton

Janet Dean

Lab 27810 Con 21480 LDm 4617 NatDem 604

Lab gain from Con

6330 (11.61%)

Swing Con to Lab 9.30%

86

Watford

Claire Ward

Lab 25019 Con 19227 LDm 9272 Ref 1484 NLP 234

Lab gain from Con

5792 (10.49%)

Swing Con to Lab 12.30%

87

Swindon South

Julia Drown

Lab 23943 Con 18298 LDm 7371 Ref 1273 Route66 181 NLP 96

Lab gain from Con

5645 (11.03%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.57%

88

Oxford West & Abingdon

Dr Evan Harris

LDm 26268 Con 19983 Lab 12361 Ref 1258 Grn 691 UKInd 258 ProLife 238 NLP 91 LGR 48

LDm gain from Con

6285 (10.27%)

Swing Con to LDm 10.34%

89

Cornwall South East

Colin Breed

LDm 27044 Con 20564 Lab 7358 UKInd 1428 MK 573 Lib 268 NLP 197

LDm gain from Con

6480 (11.28%)

Swing Con to LDm 12.06%

90

Calder Valley

Christine McCafferty

Lab 26050 Con 19795 LDm 8322 Ref 1380 Grn 488 BNP 431

Lab gain from Con

6255 (11.08%)

Swing Con to Lab 9.53%

91

Stourbridge

Debra Shipley

Lab 23452 Con 17807 LDm 7123 Ref 1319

Lab gain from Con

5645 (11.36%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.96%

92

Pudsey

Paul Truswell

Lab 25370 Con 19163 LDm 7375 Ref 823

Lab gain from Con

6207 (11.77%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.79%

93

Medway

Robert Marshall-Andrews

Lab 21858 Con 16504 LDm 4555 Ref 1420 UKInd 405

Lab gain from Con

5354 (11.97%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.85%

94

Edinburgh Pentlands

Linda Clark

Lab 19675 Con 14813 SNP 5952 LDm 4575 Ref 422 Grn 224 UKInd 81

Lab gain from Con

4862 (10.63%)

Swing Con to Lab 9.83%

95

Morecambe & Lunesdale

Geraldine Smith

Lab 24061 Con 18096 LDm 5614 Ref 1313 NLP 165

Lab gain from Con

5965 (12.11%)

Swing Con to Lab 15.95%

96

Hendon

Andrew Dismore

Lab 24683 Con 18528 LDm 5427 Ref 978 UKInd 267 WRP 153

Lab gain from Con

6155 (12.30%)

Swing Con to Lab 16.21%

97

Aberdeen South

Anne Begg

Lab 15541 LDm 12176 Con 11621 SNP 4299 Ref 425

Lab gain from Con

3365 (7.64%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.18%

98

Southport

Ronnie Fearn

LDm 24346 Con 18186 Lab 6125 Ref 1368 Lib 386 NLP 93 NatDem 92

LDm gain from Con

6160 (12.17%)

Swing Con to LDm 8.85%

99

Harrogate & Knaresborough

Phil Willis

LDm 24558 Con 18322 Lab 4159 LC 614

LDm gain from Con

6236 (13.09%)

Swing Con to LDm 15.75%

100

Hornchurch

John Cryer

Lab 22066 Con 16386 LDm 3446 Ref 1595 TW 259 ProLife 189

Lab gain from Con

5680 (12.93%)

Swing Con to Lab 15.95%

Notes: Table was generated by UK-Elect v4.5, and reflects situation at 10th February 2001. Where the Conservatives are second the swing required to win a seat can be obtained by halving the majority. The table filtering was set to include constituencies in Great Britain only (excluding Northern Ireland). Gains and swings are compared to the previous election in that constituency. Where constituency boundaries changed between 1992 and 1997, estimates of what the 1992 results would have been if the 1997 boundaries had been used are taken from the definitive work by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher: "Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies" (ISBN: 0 948858 21 4)

 

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