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Best Prospects for Labour Gains in 2001

This chart shows the top 100 prospects for Labour gains in 2001, sorted from easiest to most difficult.

UK-Elect Forecast for June 2001 Best Prospects for Labour Gains Best Prospects for Conservative Gains Best Prospects for Liberal Democrat Gains

Pos.

Constituency

Winner

Votes

Gain Info.

Majority

Swing Info.

1

Dorset South

Ian Bruce

Con 17755 Lab 17678 LDm 9936 Ref 2791 UKInd 861 NLP 161

Con hold

77 (0.16%)

Swing Con to LDm 4.21%

2

Bedfordshire South West

Sir David Madel

Con 21534 Lab 21402 LDm 7559 Ref 1761 UKInd 446 NLP 162

Con hold

132 (0.25%)

Swing Con to Lab 15.10%

3

Lichfield

Michael Fabricant

Con 20853 Lab 20615 LDm 5473 Ref 1652

Con hold

238 (0.49%)

Swing Con to Lab 9.97%

4

Hexham

Peter Atkinson

Con 17701 Lab 17479 LDm 7959 Ref 1362 UKInd 1170

Con hold

222 (0.49%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.87%

5

Bury St Edmunds

David Ruffley

Con 21290 Lab 20922 LDm 10102 Ref 2939 NLP 272

Con hold

368 (0.66%)

Swing LDm to Con 0.58%

6

Meriden

Caroline Spelman

Con 22997 Lab 22415 LDm 7098 Ref 2208

Con hold

582 (1.06%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.57%

7

Boston & Skegness

Sir Richard Body

Con 19750 Lab 19103 LDm 7721

Con hold

647 (1.39%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.58%

8

Beverley & Holderness

James Cran

Con 21629 Lab 20818 LDm 9689 UKInd 695 NLP 111

Con hold

811 (1.53%)

Swing Con to LDm 3.31%

9

Bosworth

David Tredinnick

Con 21189 Lab 20162 LDm 9281 Ref 1521

Con hold

1027 (1.97%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.66%

10

Chipping Barnet

Sir Sydney Chapman

Con 21317 Lab 20282 LDm 6121 Ref 1190 Lny 253 ProLife 243 NLP 159

Con hold

1035 (2.09%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.12%

11

Norfolk Mid

Keith Simpson

Con 22739 Lab 21403 LDm 8617 Ref 3229 Grn 1254 NLP 215

Con hold

1336 (2.33%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.07%

12

Billericay

Teresa Gorman

Con 22033 Lab 20677 LDm 8763 LC 3377 ProLife 570

Con hold

1356 (2.45%)

Swing Con to LDm 5.68%

13

Altrincham & Sale West

Graham Brady

Con 22348 Lab 20843 LDm 6535 Ref 1348 ProLife 313 UKInd 270 NLP 125

Con hold

1505 (2.91%)

Swing Con to Lab 12.57%

14

Suffolk West

Richard Spring

Con 20081 Lab 18214 LDm 6892 Ref 3724 NLP 171

Con hold

1867 (3.80%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.01%

15

Beckenham

Jacqui Lait

Con 13162 Lab 11935 LDm 5864 Lib 330 NF 267 NBRef 237 SocFound 69 NLP 44

Con hold

1227 (3.85%)

Swing Con to Lab 2.63%

16

Basingstoke

Andrew Hunter

Con 24751 Lab 22354 LDm 9714 Ind 310

Con hold

2397 (4.20%)

Swing Con to Lab 12.10%

17

Norfolk South West

Mrs Gillian Shepherd

Con 24694 Lab 22230 LDm 8178 Ref 3694

Con hold

2464 (4.19%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.75%

18

Eddisbury

S O'Brien

Con 15465 Lab 13859 LDm 4757 Lny 238 IndEuroCon 98 NLP 80

Con hold

1606 (4.66%)

Swing Lab to Con 1.13%

19

Shropshire North

Owen Paterson

Con 20730 Lab 18535 LDm 10489 Ref 1764

Con hold

2195 (4.26%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.21%

20

Colchester

Bob Russell

LDm 17886 Con 16305 Lab 15891 Ref 1776 NLP 148

LDm gain from Con

1581 (3.04%)

Swing Con to LDm 6.19%

21

Wycombe

Sir Ray Whitney

Con 20890 Lab 18520 LDm 9678 Ref 2394 Grn 716 NLP 121

Con hold

2370 (4.53%)

Swing Con to LDm 4.40%

22

Aldridge-Brownhills

Richard Shepherd

Con 21856 Lab 19330 LDm 5184

Con hold

2526 (5.45%)

Swing Con to Lab 7.81%

23

Grantham & Stamford

Quentin Davies

Con 22672 Lab 19980 LDm 6612 Ref 2721 UKInd 556 ProLife 314 NLP 115

Con hold

2692 (5.08%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.34%

24

Tweedale Ettrick & Lauderdale

Michael Moore

LDm 12178 Lab 10689 Con 8623 SNP 6671 Ref 406 Lib 387 NLP 47

LDm hold

1489 (3.82%)

Swing Con to LDm 2.38%

25

Thanet North

Roger Gale

Con 21586 Lab 18820 LDm 5576 Ref 2535 UKInd 438

Con hold

2766 (5.65%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.05%

26

Hertsmere

James Clappison

Con 22305 Lab 19230 LDm 6466 Ref 1703 UKInd 453 NLP 191

Con hold

3075 (6.11%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.97%

27

Hertfordshire North East

Oliver Heald

Con 21712 Lab 18624 LDm 9493 Ref 2166

Con hold

3088 (5.94%)

Swing Con to LDm 0.88%

28

Spelthorne

David Wilshire

Con 23306 Lab 19833 LDm 6821 Ref 1495 UKInd 462

Con hold

3473 (6.69%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.46%

29

Suffolk Coastal

John Gummer

Con 21696 Lab 18442 LDm 12036 Ref 3416 Grn 514 NLP 152

Con hold

3254 (5.78%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.69%

30

Stone

William Cash

Con 24859 Lab 21041 LDm 6392 Lib 545 NLP 237

Con hold

3818 (7.19%)

Swing Con to Lab 9.95%

31

Suffolk Central & Ipswich North

Michael Lord

Con 22493 Lab 18955 LDm 10886 Ind 489

Con hold

3538 (6.70%)

Swing Con to LDm 5.99%

32

Ynys Mon

Ieuan Wyn Jones

PC 15756 Lab 13275 Con 8569 LDm 1537 Ref 793

PC hold

2481 (6.21%)

Swing Con to PC 7.72%

33

Yorkshire East

John Townend

Con 20904 Lab 17567 LDm 9070 SDm 1049 NatDem 381

Con hold

3337 (6.81%)

Swing Con to Lab 8.65%

34

Old Bexley & Sidcup

Sir Edward Heath

Con 21608 Lab 18039 LDm 8284 Ref 2457 UKInd 489 BNP 415 NLP 99

Con hold

3569 (6.94%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.10%

35

Southwark North & Bermondsey

Simon Hughes

LDm 19831 Lab 16444 Con 2835 BNP 713 Ref 545 CommL 175 Lib 157 NatDem 95

LDm hold

3387 (8.30%)

Swing LDm to Lab 4.28%

36

Rushcliffe

Kenneth Clarke

Con 27558 Lab 22503 LDm 8851 Ref 2682 UKInd 403 NLP 115

Con hold

5055 (8.14%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.54%

37

Rochford & Southend East

Sir Teddy Taylor

Con 22683 Lab 18458 LDm 4387 Lib 1070

Con hold

4225 (9.07%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.23%

38

Banbury

Antony Baldry

Con 25076 Lab 20339 LDm 9761 Ref 2245 Grn 530 UKInd 364 NLP 131

Con hold

4737 (8.10%)

Swing Con to Lab 9.92%

39

Faversham & Kent Mid

Andrew Rowe

Con 22016 Lab 17843 LDm 6138 Ref 2073 Lny 511 UKInd 431 Grn 380 GRLNSP 115 NLP 99

Con hold

4173 (8.41%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.88%

40

Canterbury

Julian Brazier

Con 20913 Lab 16949 LDm 12854 Ref 2460 Grn 588 UKInd 281 NLP 64

Con hold

3964 (7.33%)

Swing Con to LDm 1.46%

41

Havant

David Willetts

Con 19204 Lab 15475 LDm 10806 Ref 2395 BIPFP 442

Con hold

3729 (7.72%)

Swing Con to LDm 4.69%

42

Bromsgrove

Julie Kirkbride

Con 24620 Lab 19725 LDm 6200 Ref 1411 UKInd 251

Con hold

4895 (9.38%)

Swing Con to Lab 7.01%

43

Derbyshire West

Patrick McLoughlin

Con 23945 Lab 19060 LDm 9940 Ref 2499 IndGrn 593 UKInd 484 Lny 281 IndBB 81

Con hold

4885 (8.59%)

Swing Con to LDm 3.06%

44

Cambridgeshire North East

Malcolm Moss

Con 23855 Lab 18754 LDm 9070 Ref 2636 SocLab 851 NLP 259

Con hold

5101 (9.20%)

Swing LDm to Con 2.04%

45

Suffolk South

Tim Yeo

Con 19402 Lab 15227 LDm 14395 Ref 2740 NLP 211

Con hold

4175 (8.03%)

Swing Con to LDm 7.72%

46

Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross

Robert Maclennan

LDm 10381 Lab 8122 SNP 6710 Con 3148 Ref 369 Grn 230 UKInd 212

LDm hold

2259 (7.74%)

Swing Con to LDm 0.98%

47

Epping Forest

Eleanor Laing

Con 24117 Lab 18865 LDm 7074 Ref 2208 BNP 743

Con hold

5252 (9.91%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.64%

48

Sleaford & North Hykeham

Douglas Hogg

Con 23358 Lab 18235 LDm 8063 Ref 2942 Ind 578

Con hold

5123 (9.63%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.44%

49

Charnwood

Stephen Dorrell

Con 26110 Lab 20210 LDm 7224 Ref 2104 BNP 525

Con hold

5900 (10.50%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.23%

50

Uxbridge

John Randall

Con 16288 Lab 12522 LDm 1792 Lny 396 SP 259 BNP 205 NatDem 157 NF 110 Org Lib. 69 UKInd 39 Rainbow 30

Con hold

3766 (11.82%)

Swing Lab to Con 5.04%

51

Ashford

Damian Green

Con 22899 Lab 17544 LDm 10901 Ref 3201 Grn 660 NLP 89

Con hold

5355 (9.68%)

Swing Con to LDm 4.42%

52

Eastleigh

David Chidgey

LDm 19453 Con 18699 Lab 14883 Ref 2013 UKInd 446

LDm gain from Con

754 (1.36%)

Swing Con to LDm 11.26%

53

Essex North

Bernard Jenkin

Con 22480 Lab 17004 LDm 10028 UKInd 1202 Grn 495

Con hold

5476 (10.69%)

Swing Con to LDm 5.58%

54

Cities of London & Westminster

Peter Brooke

Con 18981 Lab 14100 LDm 4933 Ref 1161 Barts 266 UKInd 215 NLP 176 Lny 138 Hemp 112 RDrm 73

Con hold

4881 (12.16%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.53%

55

Daventry

Tim Boswell

Con 28615 Lab 21237 LDm 9233 Ref 2018 UKInd 443 NLP 204

Con hold

7378 (11.95%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.96%

56

Ross Skye & Inverness West

Charles Kennedy

LDm 15472 Lab 11453 SNP 7821 Con 4368 Ref 535 Grn 306

LDm hold

4019 (10.06%)

Swing Con to LDm 5.48%

57

Blaby

Andrew Robathan

Con 24564 Lab 18090 LDm 8001 Ref 2018 BNP 523 Ind 397

Con hold

6474 (12.08%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.48%

58

Bedfordshire North East

Sir Nicholas Lyell

Con 22311 Lab 16428 LDm 7179 Ref 2490 IndC 1842 NLP 138

Con hold

5883 (11.68%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.82%

59

Wantage

Robert Jackson

Con 22311 Lab 16272 LDm 14822 Ref 1549 Grn 640 UKInd 465

Con hold

6039 (10.77%)

Swing Con to LDm 7.90%

60

Chingford & Woodford Green

Iain Duncan Smith

Con 21109 Lab 15395 LDm 6885 BNP 1059

Con hold

5714 (12.86%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.81%

61

Hitchin & Harpenden

Peter Lilley

Con 24038 Lab 17367 LDm 10515 NLP 290 SP 217

Con hold

6671 (12.72%)

Swing Con to LDm 7.92%

62

Hertford & Stortford

Bowen Wells

Con 24027 Lab 17142 LDm 9679 Ref 2105 UKInd 1223 ProLife 259 Logic 126

Con hold

6885 (12.62%)

Swing Con to LDm 2.36%

63

Broxbourne

Marion Roe

Con 22952 Lab 16299 LDm 5310 Ref 1633 BNP 610 TW 172

Con hold

6653 (14.16%)

Swing Con to Lab 13.36%

64

Bedfordshire Mid

Jonathan Sayeed

Con 24176 Lab 17086 LDm 8823 Ref 2257 NLP 174

Con hold

7090 (13.50%)

Swing Con to Lab 14.55%

65

Gosport

Peter Viggers

Con 21085 Lab 14827 LDm 9479 Ref 2538 Ind 426

Con hold

6258 (12.94%)

Swing Con to LDm 3.26%

66

Staffordshire South

Sir Patrick Cormack

Con 25568 Lab 17747 LDm 5797 Ref 2002

Con hold

7821 (15.30%)

Swing Con to Lab 9.05%

67

Norfolk North

David Prior

Con 21456 LDm 20163 Lab 14736 Ref 2458

Con hold

1293 (2.20%)

Swing Con to LDm 9.42%

68

Louth & Horncastle

Sir Peter Tapsell

Con 21699 Lab 14799 LDm 12207 Grn 1248

Con hold

6900 (13.81%)

Swing Con to LDm 1.01%

69

Perth

Roseanna Cunningham

SNP 16209 Con 13068 Lab 11036 LDm 3583 Ref 366 UKInd 289

SNP gain from Con

3141 (7.05%)

Swing Con to SNP 6.56%

70

Macclesfield

Nicholas Winterton

Con 26888 Lab 18234 LDm 9075

Con hold

8654 (15.97%)

Swing Con to Lab 8.58%

71

South Holland & The Deepings

John Hayes

Con 24691 Lab 16700 LDm 7836 NPC 902

Con hold

7991 (15.94%)

Swing Con to Lab 8.50%

72

Devon South West

Gary Streeter

Con 22695 Lab 15262 LDm 12542 Ref 1668 UKInd 491 NLP 159

Con hold

7433 (14.07%)

Swing Con to LDm 6.42%

73

Bridgwater

Tom King

Con 20174 LDm 18378 Lab 13519 Ref 2551

Con hold

1796 (3.29%)

Swing Con to LDm 6.89%

74

Cambridgeshire North West

Dr Brian Mawhinney

Con 23488 Lab 15734 LDm 7388 Ref 1939 UKInd 269

Con hold

7754 (15.88%)

Swing Con to Lab 10.29%

75

Gainsborough

Edward Leigh

Con 20593 Lab 13767 LDm 13436

Con hold

6826 (14.28%)

Swing Con to LDm 6.32%

76

Congleton

Ann Winterton

Con 22012 LDm 15882 Lab 14714 UKInd 811

Con hold

6130 (11.48%)

Swing Con to LDm 2.65%

77

Ruislip-Northwood

John Wilkinson

Con 22526 Lab 14732 LDm 7279 NLP 296

Con hold

7794 (17.38%)

Swing Con to Lab 12.81%

78

Brecon & Radnorshire

Richard Livsey

LDm 17516 Con 12419 Lab 11424 Ref 900 PC 622

LDm gain from Con

5097 (11.89%)

Swing Con to LDm 6.09%

79

Norfolk South

John MacGregor

Con 24935 LDm 17557 Lab 16188 Ref 2533 Grn 484 UKInd 400

Con hold

7378 (11.88%)

Swing Con to LDm 6.78%

80

Chelmsford West

Simon Burns

Con 23781 LDm 17090 Lab 15436 Ref 1536 Grn 411 UKInd 323

Con hold

6691 (11.42%)

Swing Con to LDm 7.23%

81

Fylde

Michael Jack

Con 25443 Lab 16480 LDm 7609 Ref 2372 NLP 163

Con hold

8963 (17.21%)

Swing Con to LDm 2.65%

82

Bognor Regis & Littlehampton

Nick Gibb

Con 20537 Lab 13216 LDm 11153 UKInd 1537

Con hold

7321 (15.76%)

Swing Con to LDm 4.96%

83

Portsmouth South

Mike Hancock

LDm 20421 Con 16094 Lab 13086 Ref 1629 Lib 184 UKInd 141 NLP 140

LDm gain from Con

4327 (8.37%)

Swing Con to LDm 4.41%

84

Folkestone & Hythe

Michael Howard

Con 20313 LDm 13981 Lab 12939 Ref 4188 UKInd 378 SP 182 CFSS 69

Con hold

6332 (12.17%)

Swing Con to LDm 2.41%

85

Reigate

Crispin Blunt

Con 21123 Lab 13382 LDm 9615 Ref 3352 Ind 412 UKInd 290

Con hold

7741 (16.07%)

Swing Con to LDm 4.77%

86

Rutland & Melton

Alan Duncan

Con 24107 Lab 15271 LDm 10112 Ref 2317 UKInd 823

Con hold

8836 (16.79%)

Swing Con to LDm 7.03%

87

Bracknell

Andrew Mackay

Con 27983 Lab 17596 LDm 9122 NLab 1909 Ref 1636 UKInd 569 ProLife 276

Con hold

10387 (17.58%)

Swing Con to Lab 11.29%

88

Kingston & Surbiton

Edward Davey

LDm 20411 Con 20355 Lab 12811 Ref 1470 UKInd 418 RDrm 100 NLP 100

LDm gain from Con

56 (0.10%)

Swing Con to LDm 13.60%

89

Carshalton & Wallington

Thomas Brake

LDm 18490 Con 16223 Lab 11565 Ref 1289 Grn 377 BNP 261 UKInd 218

LDm gain from Con

2267 (4.68%)

Swing Con to LDm 11.76%

90

Cambridgeshire South East

James Paice

Con 24397 Lab 15048 LDm 14246 Ref 2838 Fair 167 NLP 111

Con hold

9349 (16.46%)

Swing Con to LDm 9.19%

91

Worcestershire Mid

Peter luff

Con 24092 Lab 14680 LDm 9458 Ref 1780 UKInd 646 NLP 163

Con hold

9412 (18.52%)

Swing Con to LDm 0.02%

92

Hertfordshire South West

Richard Page

Con 25462 Lab 15441 LDm 12381 Ref 1853 NLP 274

Con hold

10021 (18.08%)

Swing Con to LDm 6.51%

93

Runnymede & Weybridge

Philip Hammond

Con 25051 Lab 15176 LDm 8397 Ref 2150 UKInd 625 NLP 162

Con hold

9875 (19.15%)

Swing Con to LDm 4.00%

94

Harborough

Edward Garnier

Con 22170 LDm 15646 Lab 13332 Ref 1859

Con hold

6524 (12.31%)

Swing Con to LDm 2.99%

95

Ludlow

Christopher Gill

Con 19633 LDm 13724 Lab 11745 Grn 798 UKInd 385

Con hold

5909 (12.77%)

Swing Con to LDm 6.63%

96

Cambridgeshire South

Andrew Lansley

Con 22572 LDm 13860 Lab 13485 Ref 3300 UKInd 298 NLP 168

Con hold

8712 (16.23%)

Swing Con to LDm 8.72%

97

Maidstone & The Weald

Ann Widdecombe

Con 23657 Lab 14054 LDm 11986 Ref 1998 SocLab 979 Grn 480 UKInd 339 NLP 115

Con hold

9603 (17.91%)

Swing Con to LDm 2.03%

98

Vale of York

Anne McIntosh

Con 23815 Lab 14094 LDm 12656 Ref 2503 SDm 197

Con hold

9721 (18.25%)

Swing Con to LDm 5.91%

99

Worthing East & Shoreham

Tim Loughton

Con 20864 LDm 15766 Lab 12335 Ref 1683 UKInd 921

Con hold

5098 (9.89%)

Swing Con to LDm 3.88%

100

Maldon & Chelmsford East

John Whittingdale

Con 24524 Lab 14485 LDm 9758 UKInd 935 Grn 685

Con hold

10039 (19.92%)

Swing Con to LDm 6.27%

Notes: Table was generated by UK-Elect v4.5, and reflects situation at 10th February 2001. Where Labour are second the swing required to win a seat can be obtained by halving the majority. The table filtering was set to include constituencies in Great Britain only (excluding Northern Ireland). Gains and swings are compared to the previous election in that constituency. Where constituency boundaries changed between 1992 and 1997, estimates of what the 1992 results would have been if the 1997 boundaries had been used are taken from the definitive work by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher: "Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies" (ISBN: 0 948858 21 4)

 

 

 

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