UK-Elect General Election Forecast, November 1st 2014. 

Hung Parliament - Labour Short By 34

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2015 UK General Election, created on November 1st 2014. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next UK General Election. The effect of the recent dramatic growth in SNP support is illustrated in this forecast - with the 38 seats achieved by the SNP sufficient to deprive Labour of an effective governing majority. A new experimental UK-Elect forecasting method was used for this prediction, which also shows seats gained by UKIP and the Green Party.

The GB percentages used for this forecast were Lab 32%, Con 32%, UKIP 17%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 5%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 40%, Lab 29%, Con 15%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 4%, Green 4%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.

(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )

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Party Seats Change Labour 291 +33 Conservative 265 -39 SNP 38 +32 Liberal Democrat 23 -34 UKIP 9 +8 DUP 8 - Sinn Fein 5 - SDLP 3 - Green 3 +2 Plaid Cymru 3 - Others 2 -2 Labour Short By 34 - Hung Parliament

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Click on image to enlarge

Notes: The forecast base was the 2010 General Election, although gains are compared with the current situation (at November 1st). An experimental UK-Elect forecasting method was used (primarily ratio based), with allowances made for factors such as the concentrated support often enjoyed by smaller parties in some constituencies. No additional local knowledge (e.g. council results, local polls) was incorporated into the individual seat forecasts other than previous General Election results. Multiple iterations were used to achieve the correct target percentages. Because of the experimental nature of the method used the confidence level in this forecast should be regarded as lower than normal. Also, the prime purpose of the forecast was to predict seat totals - the overall forecast for each party has a higher confidence level than the forecast for any individual seat.

Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.