UK-Elect Welsh Assembly Forecast, March 28th 2016.

Labour forecast to fall short of overall majority by 3

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Welsh Assembly Election. It predicts Labour to fall 3 seats short of a majority due to significant gains by UKIP.

This forecast was created on March 28th 2016. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Welsh Assembly Election. Other recent forecasts include the Scottish Parliament Forecast (March 2016).

The overall percentages used for this forecast were primarily based on opinion polls. The percentages used for the Constituency vote were: Constituency Vote: Lab 35% Con 22%, Plaid Cymru 20%, UKIP 14%, Lib Dem 6%, Green 2%. The percentages used for the AMS Regional Member vote were: AMS Vote: Lab 32% Con 22%, Plaid Cymru 21%, UKIP 14%, Lib Dem 5%, Green 5%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.

As a general guide, as soon as a party that does not win any constituencies exceeds 5% in the AMS regional vote, it will start to win AMS seats rapidly - something that is well illustrated by this forecast.

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Party Overall Seats Change Labour 28 -2 Conservative 12 -2 Plaid Cymru 11 - UKIP 7 +7 Liberal Democrat 2 -3 Overall - Labour Short By 3 Party AMS Change Conservative 6 -2 UKIP 7 +7 Plaid Cymru 5 -1 Labour 2 - Liberal Democrat 0 -4 AMS Seats - UKIP Gain 7, Lib Dem lose 4

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Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Welsh Assembly Election. The UK-Elect v10.2 forecasting method was used (UK-Elect supports many alternatives). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Welsh Assembly elections, and which produced particularly interesting results in this case due to the exact workings of the d'Hondt calculations.) Changes and swings are in comparison with the current situation.

Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on support@ukelect.co.uk.