UK-Elect Scottish Parliament Forecast, October 1st 2014. 

SNP Short of Overall Majority By 2

This is the October 1st 2014 UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Scottish Pariament Election. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Scottish Parliament Election.

The percentages used for this forecast are constituency Vote: SNP 42% Lab 32%, Con 14%, Lib Dem 5%, Regional member vote: SNP 37%, Lab 29%, Con 13% Lib Dem 4%. Other parties votes were not specifically set. (If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )

Also, if you would like to forecast the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or your own local election, as well as the General Election, then click here to purchase

Party Seats Change SNP 63 -6 Labour 42 +5 Conservative 18 +3 Liberal Democrat 3 -2 Green 2 - Independent 1 - Scottish National Party Short By 2 - NOC Gain from SNP

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Click on image to enlarge

Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election. A Uniform National Swing method was used (UK-Elect supports several alternatives). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Mamber System used in the Scottish Parliament elections. Tactical voting was set to 0% (i.e. disabled). Note: The colour scheme selected for the maps shown on this page uses Yellow for SNP, Orange for the Liberal Democrats, Red for Labour and Blue for the Conservatives. UK-Elect supports several alternate colour schemes and also allows party colours to be configured individually if desired.