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UK-Elect Scottish Parliament Forecast, March 2016.

SNP forecast to retain control of Scottish Parliament

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Scottish Parliament Election, created on March 8th 2016 using Scottish Parliament opinion poll percentages based on the latest opinion polls. It shows the SNP retaining control of the Scottish Parliament with an increased majority.

Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Scottish Parliament Election.

The percentages input for this forecast were based on the latest opinion polls.

The percentages used for this forecast were - Constituency vote: SNP 52% Lab 21%, Con 16%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 2%, Green 2%. Regional member vote: SNP 48%, Lab 19%, Con 16%, Lib Dem 7%, Green 6%UKIP 3%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.

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See also:
Constituencies map and comparison with 2011   Regions map and comparison with 2011   Top 3 in every Scottish Parliament constituency  

Party Total Seats Change
SNP 74 +6
Labour 26 -12
Conservative 19 +4
Liberal Democrat 6 +1
Green 4 +2
Ind 0 -1
Scottish National Party - Majority 19
Party AMS Seats Change
Labour 26 +4
Conservative 15 +3
Green 4 +2
SNP 7 -9
Liberal Democrat 4 +1
Independent 0 -1
AM Seats - Lab Gain 4, Con 3, SNP Lose 9.
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies) Forecast for Scotland (Regions)
Forecast for Scottish Highlands Forecast for Scottish Lowlands
Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies, party in 2nd place) Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies gained)
Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies, with pie charts) Forecast for Scotland (showing most significant 'swing to')
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election, although gains are compared to the current situation. The UK-Elect v10.0 method was used (UK-Elect supports many different alternatives, including "classic" methods such as Uniform National Swing, Proportional, and Proportional Loss, with or without a threshold). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Scottish Parliament elections. The "adjust percentages for date of election" option was not used - i.e. this forecast is a "nowcast" based on current percentages.

Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on


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