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UK-Elect Welsh Assembly Forecast, November 14 2014. 

Labour Short of Overall Majority By 2

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Welsh Assembly Election, created on November 14th 2014. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Welsh Assembly Election.

The percentages used for this forecast are constituency Vote: Lab 36% Con 21%, Plaid Cymru 18%, UKIP 12%,Lib Dem 7%, Green 4%. Regional member vote: Lab 32%, Con 21%, Plaid Cymru 16%, UKIP 18%, Lib Dem 5%, Green 5%. Other parties votes were not specifically set. (If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )

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Party Seats Change
Labour 29 -1
UKIP 11 +11
Conservative 10 -4
Plaid Cymru 9 -2
Liberal Democrat 1 -3
Overall: Labour Short By 2
Party AMS Change
Labour 2 -
UKIP 11 +11
Conservative 4 -4
Plaid Cymru 3 -3
Liberal Democrat 0 -4
AMS Seats - UKIP Gain 11
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, 1st Place) Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, 2nd Place)
Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, Swing To) Forecast for Wales (Constituencies, Swing From)
Forecast for Wales (Regions) Forecast for Wales (Votes and Seats Piecharts)
Click on image to enlarge

Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Welsh Assembly Election. A forecasting method based on Uniform National Swing was used (UK-Elect supports several alternatives). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Welsh Assembly elections, and which produced particularly interesting results in this case due to the exact workings of the d'Hondt calculations. Tactical voting was set to 0% (i.e. disabled). Changes and swings are in comparison with the current situation (includes Ynys Mon by-election). Note: The colour scheme selected for the maps shown on this page uses Yellow for the Liberal Democrats, Red for Labour, Blue for the Conservatives and Green for Plaid Cymru. UK-Elect supports several alternate colour schemes and also allows party colours to be configured individually if desired.

Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on


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