UK-Elect Welsh Assembly Forecast, May 27th 2015.

Labour forecast to fall short of overall majority by 3

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Welsh Assembly Election. It predicts Labour to fall 3 seats short of a majority due to significant gains by UKIP.

This forecast was created on May 27th 2015. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Welsh Assembly Election. Other recent forecasts include the Scottish Parliament Forecast (May 26th 2015).

The overall percentages used for this forecast were based on the actual result at the 2015 UK General Election. The percentages used for both the Constituency and AMS Regional Member vote were: Constituency Vote: Lab 36.88% Con 27.22%, UKIP 13.64%, Plaid Cymru 12.13%, Lib Dem 6.53%, Green 2.56%. Other parties votes were not specifically set. (In reality of course, the AMS votes are likely to differ from the constituency votes, so this forecast should be regarded as a "What If the 2016 Welsh Assembly percentages were similar to the 2015 UK General Election" forecast. As a general guide, as soon as a party that does not win any constituencies reaches about 5% in the AMS regional vote, it will start to win seats rapidly.)

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Party Overall Seats Change Labour 28 -2 Conservative 16 +2 Plaid Cymru 7 -4 UKIP 7 +7 Liberal Democrat 2 -3 Overall - Labour Short By 3 Party AMS Change Conservative 9 +1 UKIP 7 +7 Plaid Cymru 2 -4 Labour 2 - Liberal Democrat 0 -4 AMS Seats - UKIP Gain 7, Plaid Cymru and Lib Dem lose 4

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Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Welsh Assembly Election. The UK-Elect v10.0 forecasting method was used (UK-Elect supports many alternatives). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Welsh Assembly elections, and which produced particularly interesting results in this case due to the exact workings of the d'Hondt calculations.) Changes and swings are in comparison with the current situation.