General Election Forecasts
Latest forecast for UK
June 7 2017
June 4 2017
May 29 2017
April 24 2017
December 5 2015
October 20 2015
June 23 2015
May 7 2015 Result
May 6 2015
May 5 2015
May 1 2015
April 28 2015
April 19 2015
April 8 2015
Mar 03 2015
Feb 2 2015
Jan 3 2015
Dec 1 2014
Nov 1 2014
Oct 1 2014
Scottish Parliament Forecasts
Latest forecast for Scottish Parliament
Mar 08 2016
Sep 18 2015
May 26 2015
Apr 29 2015
Mar 17 2015
Nov 26 2014
Oct 1 2014
Welsh Assembly Forecasts
Latest forecast for Welsh Assembly
Mar 28 2016
Sep 24 2015
May 27 2015
Mar 20 2015
Nov 14 2014
London Assembly Forecasts
Latest forecast for London Assembly
Apr 2 2016
Oct 2 2015
May 28 2015
More Maps
More Forecast, Election and Analysis Maps
More Maps

UK-Elect London Assembly Forecast, October 2nd 2015.

Labour forecast to fall short of overall majority by 2

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 London Assembly Election. It predicts that Labour will again fall two seats short of a majority.

This forecast was created on October 2nd 2015. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next London Assembly Election. Other recent forecasts include the Scottish Parliament Forecast (Sep 18 2015) and the Welsh Assembly Forecast (Sep 24 2015).

Forecast percentages were based primarily on opinion poll percentages. The overall vote percentages used were: Constituency Vote: Lab 42%, Con 35%, UKIP 8%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 6%. AMS (Add-on Seats) Vote: Lab 40%, Con 33%, UKIP 9%, Green 8%, Lib Dem 6%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.

(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )

Also, if you would like to forecast the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or your own local election, as well as the General Election, then click here to purchase

Party Overall Seats Change
Labour 11 -1
Conservative 9 -
UKIP 2 +2
Green 2 -
Liberal Democrat 1 -1
Overall - Labour Short By 2
Party AMS Change
Labour 3 -1
Conservative 3 -
UKIP 2 +2
Green 2 -
Liberal Democrat 1 -1
AMS Seats - UKIP Gain 2, LD and Lab lose 1
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for London (Constituencies, Coloured By Percentage Lead) Forecast for London (2nd Place, Coloured By Percentage Lead Over 3rd)
Forecast for London (3rd Place, Coloured By Percentage Lead Over 4th) Forecast for London (Most Significant 'Swing To')
Forecast for London (UKIP Vs Green Percentages) Forecast for London (Liberal Democrat Vs Green Percentages)
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Notes: The forecast base was the 2012 London Assembly Election. The UK-Elect v10.0 forecasting method was used (UK-Elect supports many alternatives). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the London Assembly elections.) Changes and swings are in comparison with the previous election. UK-Elect Standard and Professional Edition users who would like to reproduce this forecast should first update their London Assembly 2012 data-files (see the UK-Elect Downloads Page for details).

Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on

Subscribe to our forecast email updates here
Latest UK-Elect Free Trial Version


Any comment about this forecast? Add it below:



©Copyright 2015 UK-Elect