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UK-Elect London Assembly Forecast, May 28th 2015.

Labour forecast to fall short of overall majority by 1

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 London Assembly Election. It predicts that Labour will again fall one seat short of a majority.

This forecast was created on May 28th 2015. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next London Assembly Election. Other recent forecasts include the Scottish Parliament Forecast (May 26th 2015) and the Welsh Assembly Forecast (May 27th 2015).

The overall percentages used for this forecast were based on the actual result at the 2015 UK General Election. The percentages used for both the Constituency and AMS Regional Member vote were: Constituency Vote: Lab 43.69% Con 34.88%, UKIP 8,12%, Lib Dem 7.71%, Green 4.85%. Other parties votes were not specifically set. (In reality of course, the AMS votes are likely to differ from the constituency votes, so this forecast should be regarded as a "What If the 2016 London Assembly percentages were similar to the 2015 UK General Election" forecast. As a general guide, as soon as a party that does not win any constituencies passes the 5% minimum thresahold in the London-wide AMS vote, it will start to win seats.)

(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )

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Party Overall Seats Change
Labour 12 -
Conservative 9 -
UKIP 2 +2
Liberal Democrat 2 -
Green 0 -2
Overall - Labour Short By 1
Party AMS Change
Labour 4 -
Conservative 3 -
UKIP 2 +2
Liberal Democrat 2 -
Green 0 -2
AMS Seats - UKIP Gain 2, Green lose 2
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for London (Constituencies, Coloured By Percentage Lead) Forecast for London (2nd Place, Coloured By Percentage Lead Over 3rd)
Forecast for London (3rd Place, Coloured By Percentage Lead Over 4th) Forecast for London (Votes and Seats)
Forecast for London (Labour Vs Conservative Percentages) Forecast for London (UKIP Vs Liberal Democrat Percentages)
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Notes: The forecast base was the 2012 London Assembly Election. The UK-Elect v10.0 forecasting method was used (UK-Elect supports many alternatives). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the London Assembly elections.) Changes and swings are in comparison with the previous election. UK-Elect Standard and Professional Edition users who would like to reproduce this forecast should first update their London Assembly 2012 data-files (see the UK-Elect Downloads Page for details).

Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on

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