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UK-Elect London Assembly Forecast, April 2nd 2016.

Labour forecast to fall short of overall majority by 2

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 London Assembly Election. It predicts that Labour will again fall two seats short of a majority.

This forecast was created on April 2nd 2016. Other recent forecasts include the Scottish Parliament Forecast (March 2016) and the Welsh Assembly Forecast (March 2016).

Forecast percentages were based primarily on opinion poll percentages. The overall vote percentages used (again) were: Constituency Vote: Lab 42%, Con 35%, UKIP 8%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 6%. AMS (Add-on Seats) Vote: Lab 40%, Con 33%, UKIP 9%, Green 8%, Lib Dem 6%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.

Note that these figures are unchanged from the previous forecast as there have been few recent opinion polls for the London Assembly. If a new London Assembly opinion poll is published before the election then a new UK-Elect forecast may be created.

(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )

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Party Overall Seats Change
Labour 11 -1
Conservative 9 -
UKIP 2 +2
Green 2 -
Liberal Democrat 1 -1
Overall - Labour Short By 2
Party AMS Change
Labour 3 -1
Conservative 3 -
UKIP 2 +2
Green 2 -
Liberal Democrat 1 -1
AMS Seats - UKIP Gain 2, LD and Lab lose 1
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for London (Constituencies, Coloured By Percentage Lead) Forecast for London (2nd Place, Coloured By Percentage Lead Over 3rd)
Forecast for London (3rd Place, Coloured By Percentage Lead Over 4th) Forecast for London (Most Significant 'Swing To')
Forecast for London (UKIP Vs Green Percentages) Forecast for London (Liberal Democrat Vs Green Percentages)
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Notes: The forecast base was the 2012 London Assembly Election. The UK-Elect v10 forecasting method was used (UK-Elect supports many alternatives). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the London Assembly elections.) Changes and swings are in comparison with the previous election.

Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on

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