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UK-Elect European Parliament Forecast, May 9th 2019.

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2019 European Parliament Election. It predicts that the Brexit Party will be the largest party, with 27 seats.

Forecast percentages were based primarily on current opinion poll percentages. This forecast is GB only. The overall vote percentages used were: Brexit Party 28%, Lab 21%, Con 13%, Lib Dem 10%, Change UK 9%, Green 9%, UKIP 4%, SNP 3.5%. Other parties votes were not specifically set. It is important to note that regional opinion poll percentages were not used for this forecast, so the estimates for London etc. are based on a combination of previous results and current national (GB) opinion polls. As a result the regional forecasts may be less accurate than where up to date regional polling data is available and used.

If you would like to forecast the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly, GB European Parliament seats or your own local election, as well as the General Election, then click here

Party Overall Seats Change
Brexit Party 27 +27
Labour 19 -1
Conservative 8 -11
Change UK 5 +5
Liberal Democrat 4 +3
Scottish National Party 4 +1
Green 3 -
UKIP 0 -24
GB Total 70 -
DETAILS: For full regional details.including D'Hondt forecast calculations see Full D'Hondt forecast calculations for every GB region.
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for GB, Coloured By Percentage Lead Forecast for GB, 2nd Place, Coloured By Percentage Lead Over 3rd
Forecast for GB, 3rd Place, Coloured By Percentage Lead Over 4th Forecast for GB (Most Significant 'Swing To')
Forecast for GB (Brexit Party Vs Conservative Percentages) Forecast for GB (Brexit Party Vs Labour Percentages)
Forecast for GB (Liberal Democrat Vs Change UK Percentages) Forecast for GB (Liberal Democrat Vs Green Percentages)
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Notes: The forecast base was the 2014 European Parliament Election. The UK-Elect v11.2 forecasting method was used (UK-Elect supports many alternatives). The forecast was made using the D'Hondt Party List System used in the UK European Parliament elections. Changes and swings are in comparison with the previous election. For regional D'Hondt calculations see GB European Parliament Regional Forecasts

Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on

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