UK-Elect European Parliament Forecast, May 9th 2019.
This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2019 European Parliament Election.
It predicts that the Brexit Party will be the largest party, with 27 seats.
Forecast percentages were based primarily on current opinion poll percentages. This forecast is GB only.
The overall vote percentages used were: Brexit Party 28%, Lab 21%, Con 13%, Lib Dem 10%, Change UK 9%, Green 9%, UKIP 4%, SNP 3.5%.
Other parties votes were not specifically set.
It is important to note that regional opinion poll percentages were not used for this forecast, so the estimates for London etc. are based on a combination
of previous results and current national (GB) opinion polls. As a result the regional forecasts may be less accurate than where up to date regional polling data
is available and used.
DETAILS: For full regional details.including D'Hondt forecast calculations see
Full D'Hondt forecast calculations for every GB region.
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Click on image to enlarge.
See also more maps.
Notes: The forecast base was the 2014
European Parliament Election. The UK-Elect v11.2 forecasting method was used (UK-Elect
supports many alternatives). The forecast was made using the D'Hondt Party List System used in the UK European Parliament elections.
Changes and swings are in comparison with the previous election. For regional D'Hondt calculations see
GB European Parliament Regional Forecasts
Suggestions and Corrections:
UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any
suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong,
please email us
on
support@ukelect.co.uk.
