UK-Elect General Election Forecast, December 4th 2019.

Conservative Overall Majority of 44.

In this UK-Elect General Election forecast the Conservatives are projected to win 346 seats giving them a majority of 44. This gives them 131 more than the Labour Party's 215 seats with the Scottish National Party on 46 seats, the Liberal Democrats 19, the Democratic Unionist Party 10, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 4, Green 1 and Others 2.

The UK-Elect v11.45 method was used for the forecast, using overall GB-wide percentages combined with separate Scottish, Welsh and London percentages. Brexit-specific tactical voting was enabled. Candidate-specific settings (including actual candidates in each constituency and pacts between parties at local constituency level) were also utilised, as were the final candidates lists. The current recommended default Brexit forecasting settings were used, which sets Brexit electoral importance to 8/10 ("Extremely Important" to most voters). This method takes account of Brexit leave and remain support levels within each constituency and each party. These levels can optionally be configured by users to take account of any change in the political situation.

Note that this is an interim forecast, extending the forecast of 1st December by including the latest London polls. An even more detailed full forecast will be produced on December 8th that will incorporate additional local, regional and UK polls and forecasting algorithm adjustments.

Detailed predictions for every constituency are available in a CSV file (suitable for use in Excel etc.) here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

The GB percentages used were: Con 42.50%, Lab 33.00%, LD 13.00%, SNP 3.50%, Brexit 3.00%, Grn 2.50%. Scottish percentages used were: SNP 43.00%, Con 27.00%, Lab 17.00%, LD 11.00%, Grn 1.00%, Brexit 0.50%. Welsh percentages used were: Lab 38.00%, Con 31.00%, PC 11.00%, LD 10.00%, Brexit 7.00%, Grn 1.50%. London percentages used were: Lab 46.00%, Con 30.00%, LD 16.00%, Grn 4.00%, Brexit 3.00%, UKIP 0.50%. All percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls. Adjusting forecasting percentages to take account of the date of the election was not enabled.

One factor of interest is that current opinion polls are still quite fluid, with values for the key parties varying between polling organisations and also from poll to poll. This could make a significant difference to any prediction.

Why not forecast the General Election, Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or other UK election yourself? UK-Elect has a huge amount of functionality, data, maps etc. related to all types of U.K. elections. Make UK-Elect the core of your election experience - Forecast It All!

See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
UK   UK (With Gains)   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   NW England   NE England   West Midlands   East Midlands   Yorks and Humberside   Gains   Losses   Swing To   Swing From   2nd

Party Seats Change Conservative 346 +29 Labour 215 -47 SNP 46 +11 Liberal Democrat 19 +7 DUP 10 - Sinn Fein 7 - Plaid Cymru 4 - Green 1 - Others 2 - Conservative Majority 44 Note: +/- comparisons are with last election. See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page. Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts for detailed forecast for every constituency.

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Additional UK-Elect generated maps and screenshots (Click to enlarge)
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See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques.

Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.

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