UK-Elect General Election Forecast, November 24th 2019.
Conservative Overall Majority of 78.
In this UK-Elect General Election forecast, which uses a considerably enhanced method that fine-tunes support for the parties based on the actual candidates in each constituency, plus any local constituency polls, and a wide range of other factors such as the level of support for Brexit in each constituency, the Conservatives are projected to win 363 seats giving them a majority of 78. This gives them 169 more than the Labour Party's 194 seats with the Scottish National Party on 44 seats, the Liberal Democrats 25, the Democratic Unionist Party 10, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 5, Green 1 and Others 2.
The UK-Elect v11.45 method was used for the forecast, using overall GB-wide percentages combined with separate Scottish percentages. Due to a lack of good recent poll data separate Welsh, and London percentages were not used on this occasion, and this could affect the accuracy of the Welsh and London seat estimates. Brexit-specific tactical voting was enabled. Candidate-specific settings (including actual candidates in each constituency and pacts between parties at local constituency level) were also utilised, as were the final candidates lists.The current recommended default Brexit forecasting settings were used, which sets Brexit electoral importance to 8/10 ("Extremely Important" to most voters). This method takes account of Brexit leave and remain support levels within each constituency and each party. These levels can optionally be configured by users to take account of any change in the political situation.
Detailed predictions for every constituency are available in a CSV file (suitable for use in Excel etc.) here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.
This latest UK-Elect version is currently still available as a Beta version for free download. See UK-Elect Beta Offer for details.
The GB percentages used were: Con 42.50%, Lab 30.50%, LD 15.00%, SNP 3.50%, Brexit 3.00%, Grn 3.00. Scottish percentages used were: SNP 41.00%, Con 27.00%, Lab 18.00%, LD 11.00%, Grn 1.50%, Brexit 1.00%. All percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls. Adjusting forecasting percentages to take account of the date of the election was not enabled.
One factor of interest is that current opinion polls are still quite fluid, with values for the key parties varying between polling organisations and also from poll to poll. This could make a significant difference to any prediction.
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A UK-Elect Beta version is currently (24th November 2019) still available for free download. See UK-Elect Beta Offer for details of Beta versions.
See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques.
Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on firstname.lastname@example.org.
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