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UK-Elect General Election Forecast, December 8th 2019.

Conservative Overall Majority of 60.

In this UK-Elect General Election forecast the Conservatives are projected to win 354 seats giving them a majority of 60. This gives them 142 more than the Labour Party's 212 seats with the Scottish National Party on 43 seats, the Liberal Democrats 17, the Democratic Unionist Party 10, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 4, Green 1 and Others 2. This forecast result is based on more data than previous UK-Elect forecasts, including additional constituency and regional polls. The end result is fairly similar to that predicted by most recent UK-Elect (and other) forecasts, but the trend in the last week is towards an increased Conservative majority.

The UK-Elect v11.45 method was used for the forecast, using overall GB-wide percentages combined with separate Scottish, Welsh, London and (for the first time) Northern England percentages. Brexit-specific tactical voting was enabled. Candidate-specific settings (including actual candidates in each constituency and pacts between parties at local constituency level) were also utilised, as were the final candidates lists. The current recommended default Brexit forecasting settings were used, which sets Brexit electoral importance to 8/10 ("Extremely Important" to most voters). This method takes account of Brexit leave and remain support levels within each constituency and each party. These levels can optionally be configured by users to take account of any change in the political situation.

Detailed predictions for every constituency are available in a CSV file (suitable for use in Excel etc.) here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

GB percentages used were: Con 43.25%, Lab 33.25%, LD 12.50%, SNP 3.50%, Brexit 3.00%, Grn 2.50%. Scottish percentages used were: SNP 41.50%, Con 28.50%, Lab 18.00%, LD 10.00%, Grn 1.00%, Brexit 0.50%. Welsh percentages used were: Lab 38.00%, Con 32.00%, PC 11.00%, LD 9.50%, Brexit 7.00%, Grn 1.50%. London percentages used were: Lab 46.00%, Con 30.00%, LD 16.00%, Grn 4.00%, Brexit 3.00%, UKIP 0.50%. Northern England percentages used were: Lab 42.00%, Con 38.50%, LD 9.50%, Brexit 6.00%, Grn 3.00%, UKIP 0.50. All percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls. Adjusting forecasting percentages to take account of the date of the election was not enabled.

The current opinion polls are now fairly stable, although some values for the key parties vary between polling organisations. This could make a significant difference to any prediction.

Why not forecast the General Election, Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or other UK election yourself? UK-Elect has a huge amount of functionality, data, maps etc. related to all types of U.K. elections. Make UK-Elect the core of your election experience - Forecast It All!

See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
UK   UK (With Gains)   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   NW England   NE England   West Midlands   East Midlands   Yorks and Humberside   Gains   Losses   Swing To   Swing From   2nd

Party Seats Change
Conservative 354 +37
Labour 212 -50
SNP 43 +8
Liberal Democrat 17 +5
DUP 10 -
Sinn Fein 7 -
Plaid Cymru 4 -
Green 1 -
Others 2 -
Conservative Majority 60

Note: +/- comparisons are with last election. See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page.

Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts for detailed forecast for every constituency.

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
UK General Election Forecast for UK UK General Election Forecast for Scotland
UK General Election Forecast for Wales UK General Election Forecast for Eastern England
UK General Election Forecast for London UK General Election Forecast Gains
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.
 
Additional UK-Elect generated maps and screenshots (Click to enlarge)
UK General Election Forecast for South West England UK General Election Forecast for South East England UK General Election Forecast Losses
UK General Election Forecast for North West England UK General Election Forecast for North East England UK General Election Forecast 2nd Place
UK General Election Forecast for West Midlands UK General Election Forecast for East Midlands UK General Election Forecast for Yorkshire and Humberside
UK General Election Forecast - Coloured by most significant 'Swing To' percentage UK General Election Forecast - Coloured by most significant 'Swing From' percentage UK General Election Forecast for UK with Gains
Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge

See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques.

Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.

Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on support@ukelect.co.uk.

 

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