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UK-Elect General Election Forecast, June 11th 2019.

Labour Gain 23 Seats, 55 short of Overall Majority.

In this UK-Elect General Election forecast, which uses an updated method that fine-tunes support for the parties based on the level of support for Brexit in each constituency, the Labour Party are projected to win 270 seats (+23 from current situation) leaving them 55 seats short of a majority, 38 ahead of the Conservative's 232 seats (-81), with the Scottish National Party on 53 seats (+18), the Liberal Democrats 52 (+41), the Brexit Party on 18 (+18), the Democratic Unionist Party 10, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 4, Green 1 and Others 3.

The UK-Elect v11.3 method was used for the forecast, using overall GB-wide percentages. Candidate-specific settings were not utilised, but the automatic addition of Brexit Party and Change UK candidates was enabled. The current recommended default settings were used.

The percentages used were: Lab 26%, Con 23%, Brexit Party 20%, LD 17%, Green 5.5%, UKIP 1.5%, Change UK 1.5%, SNP 3.6%. These percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls.

One factor of interest is that current opinion polls are currently very fluid, with values for the key parties varying by more than 5% from poll to poll. This could make an enormous difference - for example, with 25% of the vote the Brexit Party could easily gain well over 160 seats (most of them at the expense of the Conservatives), and start to gain more seats very rapidly with even small further increases, depending on the percentage distribution between the other parties.

Why not forecast the General Election, Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or other UK election yourself? UK-Elect has a huge amount of functionality, data, maps etc. related to all types of U.K. elections. Make UK-Elect the core of your election experience - Forecast It All!

See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
UK   UK (With Gains)   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   NW England   NE England   West Midlands   East Midlands   Yorks and Humberside   Gains   Losses   Swing To   Swing From   2nd

Party Seats Change
Labour 270 +23
Conservative 232 -81
SNP 53 +18
Liberal Democrat 52 +41
Brexit Party 18 +18
DUP 10 -
Sinn Fein 7 -
Plaid Cymru 4 -
Green 1 -
Change UK 0 -
UKIP 0 -
Others 3 -
No Overall Control - Lab short by 55

See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page.

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
UK General Election Forecast for UK UK General Election Forecast for Scotland
UK General Election Forecast for Wales UK General Election Forecast for Eastern England
UK General Election Forecast for London UK General Election Forecast Gains
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.
 
Additional UK-Elect generated maps and screenshots (Click to enlarge)
UK General Election Forecast for South West England UK General Election Forecast for South East England UK General Election Forecast Losses
UK General Election Forecast for North West England UK General Election Forecast for North East England UK General Election Forecast 2nd Place
UK General Election Forecast for West Midlands UK General Election Forecast for East Midlands UK General Election Forecast for Yorkshire and Humberside
UK General Election Forecast - Coloured by most significant 'Swing To' percentage UK General Election Forecast - Coloured by most significant 'Swing From' percentage UK General Election Forecast for UK with Gains
Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge

Notes: The forecast is based upon the current (2019) electoral boundaries. Note that these boundaries may change before the next(possibly 2022) election.

See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques.

Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.

Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on support@ukelect.co.uk.

 

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