UK-Elect General Election Forecast, September 12 2019.
Hung Parliament: Lib Dems and SNP Gain, Conservatives 16 short of Overall Majority.
In this UK-Elect General Election forecast, which uses a considerably enhanced method that fine-tunes support for the parties based on the level of support for Brexit in each constituency, the Conservatives are projected to win 308 seats (9 seats less than last election but 20 seats more than the current situation), leaving them 16 seats short of a majority. This gives them 89 more than the Labour Party's 219 seats (-43 compared with last election, -28 compared with current situation), with the Scottish National Party on 51 seats (+16), the Liberal Democrats 45 (+33 compared with last election, +28 compared to now), the Brexit Party on 1 seat (+1), the Democratic Unionist Party 10, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 5 (+1), Green 1 and Others 3.
The UK-Elect v11.4 experimental (Beta) method was used for the forecast, using overall GB-wide percentages combined with separate Scottish percentages. Candidate-specific settings were not utilised, but the automatic addition of Brexit Party candidates was enabled. The current recommended default settings were used, which sets Brexit electoral importance to 8/10 ("Extremely Important" to most voters). This experimental method takes account of Brexit leave and remain support levels within each constituency and each party. These levels can optionally be configured by users to take account of any change in the political situation.
This lastest UK-Elect Beta version is currently available for free download. See UK-Elect Beta Offer for details.
The GB percentages used were: Con 32%, Lab 25%, LD 18%, Brexit Party 13%, Green 5%, UKIP 1%, Change UK/TIG 0.5%, SNP 3.5%. Scottish percentages used were: SNP 41%, Con 20%, Lab 17%, LD 12%, Brexit Party 6%, Green 3%. All percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls.
One factor of interest is that current opinion polls are currently very fluid, with values for the key parties varying by more than 5% from poll to poll. This would make an enormous difference to any prediction.
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Notes: The forecast is based upon the current (2019) electoral boundaries. Note that these boundaries may change before the next(possibly as late as 2022) election.
This forecast was produced with a UK-Elect Beta version, which at the time it was produced was available for free download. See UK-Elect Beta Offer for details of Beta versions.
See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques.
Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on email@example.com.
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