UK-Elect European Parliament Forecast, May 22nd 2019.

This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2019 European Parliament Election. It predicts that the Brexit Party will be the largest party, with 33 seats.

Forecast percentages were based primarily on current opinion poll percentages. This forecast is GB only. The overall vote percentages used were: Brexit Party 35%, Lib Dem 18%, Lab 16%, Green 10.5%, Con 8.5%, Change UK 4%, SNP 3.5%, UKIP 3%.

In addition to the overall percentages seperate percentages were also used for Scotland, Wales, London and the South East England regions. This is a change from many previous forecasts where regional percentages were not used. As a result this forecast should be more accurate than those previous ones.

The percentages used were: Scotland: Brexit Party 16%, Lab 14%, Lib Dem 9%, Con 11%, Green 7%, Change UK 2%, SNP 38%, UKIP 2%.
Wales: Brexit Party 33%, Lab 18%, Lib Dem 10%, Con 7%, Green 8%, Change UK 4%, Plaid Cymru 16%, UKIP 3%.
London: Brexit Party 21%, Lab 21%, Lib Dem 22%, Con 10%, Green 14%, Change UK 6%, UKIP 2%.
South East England: Brexit Party 37%, Lab 11%, Lib Dem 21%, Con 11%, Green 11%, Change UK 5%, UKIP 3%.

Other parties votes were not specifically set.

One factor of note is that both the Green Party and the Conservatives are close to a point where a small increase (or decrease) in support could significantly affect the number of seats that they win. In particular, a small relative change in votes could see the Conservatives win many more seats than the Greens. The Brexit Party could also easily gain more seats if the trend towards them continues into polling day.

Variations in seat numbers that could be achieved by a small swing in voting totals (less than 2%) are shown in brackets below.

If you would like to forecast the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly, GB European Parliament seats or your own local election, as well as the General Election, then click here

Party Overall Seats Change Brexit Party 33 (32-36) +33 Labour 12 (11-14) -8 Liberal Democrat 12 (10-13) +11 Green 6 (3-6) (note 1) +3 Conservative 3 (3-7+) (note 1) -16 Scottish National Party 3 (2-4) +1 Plaid Cymru 1 (0-1) - UKIP 0 -24 Change UK 0 - GB Total 70 - NOTE 1: a small increase in Con vote totals (as shown in some polls) could see Cons gain many more seats, and Greens lose some. DETAILS: For full regional details.including D'Hondt forecast calculations see Full D'Hondt forecast calculations for every GB region.

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Notes: The forecast base was the 2014 European Parliament Election. The UK-Elect v11.2 forecasting method was used (UK-Elect supports many alternatives). The forecast was made using the D'Hondt Party List System used in the UK European Parliament elections. Changes and swings are in comparison with the previous election. For regional D'Hondt calculations see GB European Parliament Regional Forecasts

Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on support@ukelect.co.uk.

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