Banner
General Election Forecasts
Latest forecast for UK
December 8 2019
December 4 2019
December 1 2019
November 24 2019
November 20 2019
November 3 2019
September 12 2019
June 11 2019
May 8 2019
June 8 2017 Result
June 7 2017
May 29 2017
April 24 2017
May 7 2015 Result
May 6 2015
 
European Parliament Forecasts
Latest forecast for European Parliament
May 22 2019
May 20 2019
May 19 2019
May 09 2019
 
Scottish Parliament Forecasts
Latest forecast for Scottish Parliament
Mar 08 2016
Sep 18 2015
May 26 2015
 
Welsh Assembly Forecasts
Latest forecast for Welsh Assembly
Mar 28 2016
Sep 24 2015
 
London Assembly Forecasts
Latest forecast for London Assembly
Apr 2 2016
Oct 2 2015
May 28 2015
 
More Maps
More Forecast, Election and Analysis Maps
More Maps
 

UK-Elect General Election Forecast, December 1st 2019.

Conservative Overall Majority of 42.

In this UK-Elect General Election forecast, which uses a considerably enhanced method that fine-tunes support for the parties based on the actual candidates in each constituency, plus any local constituency polls, and a wide range of other factors such as the level of support for Brexit in each constituency, the Conservatives are projected to win 345 seats giving them a majority of 42. This gives them 130 more than the Labour Party's 215 seats with the Scottish National Party on 46 seats, the Liberal Democrats 20, the Democratic Unionist Party 10, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 4, Green 1 and Others 2.

The UK-Elect v11.45 method was used for the forecast, using overall GB-wide percentages combined with separate Scottish and Welsh percentages. Due to a lack of good recent poll data separate London percentages were not used on this occasion, and this could affect the accuracy of the London seat estimates. Brexit-specific tactical voting was enabled. Candidate-specific settings (including actual candidates in each constituency and pacts between parties at local constituency level) were also utilised, as were the final candidates lists. The current recommended default Brexit forecasting settings were used, which sets Brexit electoral importance to 8/10 ("Extremely Important" to most voters). This method takes account of Brexit leave and remain support levels within each constituency and each party. These levels can optionally be configured by users to take account of any change in the political situation.

Detailed predictions for every constituency are available in a CSV file (suitable for use in Excel etc.) here: Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts.

The GB percentages used were: Con 42.50%, Lab 33.00%, LD 13.00%, SNP 3.50%, Brexit 3.00%, Grn 2.50%. Scottish percentages used were: SNP 43.00%, Con 27.00%, Lab 17.00%, LD 11.00%, Grn 1.00%, Brexit 0.50%. Welsh percentages used were: Lab 38.00%, Con 31.00%, PC 11.00%, LD 10.00%, Brexit 7.00%, Grn 1.50% All percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls. Adjusting forecasting percentages to take account of the date of the election was not enabled.

One factor of interest is that current opinion polls are still quite fluid, with values for the key parties varying between polling organisations and also from poll to poll. This could make a significant difference to any prediction.

Why not forecast the General Election, Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or other UK election yourself? UK-Elect has a huge amount of functionality, data, maps etc. related to all types of U.K. elections. Make UK-Elect the core of your election experience - Forecast It All!

See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
UK   UK (With Gains)   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   NW England   NE England   West Midlands   East Midlands   Yorks and Humberside   Gains   Losses   Swing To   Swing From   2nd

Party Seats Change
Conservative 345 +28
Labour 215 -47
SNP 46 +11
Liberal Democrat 20 +8
DUP 10 -
Sinn Fein 7 -
Plaid Cymru 4 -
Green 1 -
Others 2 -
Conservative Majority 42

Note: +/- comparisons are with last election. See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page.

Download UK-Elect Detailed Constituency Forecasts for detailed forecast for every constituency.

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
UK General Election Forecast for UK UK General Election Forecast for Scotland
UK General Election Forecast for Wales UK General Election Forecast for Eastern England
UK General Election Forecast for London UK General Election Forecast Gains
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.
 
Additional UK-Elect generated maps and screenshots (Click to enlarge)
UK General Election Forecast for South West England UK General Election Forecast for South East England UK General Election Forecast Losses
UK General Election Forecast for North West England UK General Election Forecast for North East England UK General Election Forecast 2nd Place
UK General Election Forecast for West Midlands UK General Election Forecast for East Midlands UK General Election Forecast for Yorkshire and Humberside
UK General Election Forecast - Coloured by most significant 'Swing To' percentage UK General Election Forecast - Coloured by most significant 'Swing From' percentage UK General Election Forecast for UK with Gains
Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge

See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques.

Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.

Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on support@ukelect.co.uk.

 

Subscribe to our forecast email updates here

 

Any comment about this forecast? Add it below:

 


©Copyright 2019 UK-Elect