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UK-Elect General Election Forecast, June 7th 2017. Conservatives Gain 16 Seats, Majority 44. In this UK-Elect General Election forecast, the latest of the 2017 campaign, the Conservative Party are projected to win 346 seats (+16) giving them an absolute majority of 44, 124 ahead of Labour's 222 seats (-9), with the Scottish National Party on 47 seats (-9), the Liberal Democrats 12 (+3), the Democratic Unionist Party 8, Sinn Fein 4, Plaid Cymru 3, SDLP 3, UUP 2, Green 1 and Others 2. The UK-Elect v10.4 method was used for the forecast, applying separate forecast percentages for Scotland, Wales,and London combined with overall GB-wide percentages. Candidate-specific settings were utilised and were based on the final candidates list. The percentages used were: UK - Con 44.5%, Lab 35.5%, LD 8%, UKIP 3.5%, SNP 4%, G2%. Scotland - SNP 41%, Con 27%, Lab 24%, LD 5%, G 1%, UKIP 1%. Wales - Lab 44%, Con 34%, PC 9%, LD 6%, UKIP 5%, G 1%. London - Lab 48%, Con 33.5%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%, G 2%. These percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls. One factor of interest is that the forecast result is at a point where it could change vary rapidly if there is any further movement towards Labour due to, for example, the turnout among young people being higher than expected. Conversely, if there is any drift back to the Conservatives, or the the turnout among young people is lower than previously, then the Convervative majority could be much higher. Why not forecast the General Election, Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or other UK election yourself? UK-Elect has a huge amount of functionality, data, maps etc. related to all types of U.K. elections. Make UK-Elect the core of your election experience - Forecast It All! See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
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Notes: The forecast is based upon the current (2017) electoral boundaries. Note that these boundaries are likely to change before the next(possibly 2022) election.
See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques.
Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.
Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on support@ukelect.co.uk.Subscribe to our forecast email updates here
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