UK-Elect General Election Forecast, June 4th 2017.

Conservatives Gain 8 Seats, Majority 28.

In this UK-Elect General Election forecast, the latest of the 2017 campaign, the Conservative Party are projected to win 338 seats (+8) giving them an absolute majority of 28, 108 ahead of Labour's 230 seats (-1), with the Scottish National Party on 47 seats (-9), the Liberal Democrats 12 (+3), the Democratic Unionist Party 8, Sinn Fein 4, Plaid Cymru 3, SDLP 3, UUP 2, Green 1 and Others 2.

The UK-Elect v10.4 method was used for the forecast, applying separate forecast percentages for Scotland, Wales,and London combined with overall GB-wide percentages. Candidate-specific settings were utilised and were based on the final candidates list.

The percentages used were: UK - Con 43.5%, Lab 36.5%, LD 8.5%, UKIP 3.5%, SNP 4.5%, G2%. Scotland - SNP 42%, Con 27%, Lab 23%, LD 5%, G 1%, UKIP 1%. Wales - Lab 44%, Con 34%, PC 9%, LD 6%, UKIP 5%, G 1%. London - Lab 48%, Con 33.5%, LD 12.5%, UKIP 3%, G 2%. These percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls.

One factor of interest is that the forecast result is at a point where it could change vary rapidly if there is any further movement towards Labour due to, for example, the turnout among young people being higher than expected. Conversely, if there is any drift back to the Conservatives, or the the turnout among young people is lower than previously, then the Convervative majority could be much higher.

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See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
UK   UK (With Gains)   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   NW England   NE England   West Midlands   East Midlands   Yorks and Humberside   Gains   Losses   Swing To   Swing From   2nd

Party Seats Change Conservative 338 +8 Labour 230 -1 SNP 47 -9 Liberal Democrat 12 +3 DUP 8 - Sinn Fein 4 - Plaid Cymru 3 - SDLP 3 - UUP 2 - Green 1 - UKIP 0 -1 Others 2 - Conservative Majority 28 See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page.

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Additional UK-Elect generated maps and screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge

Notes: The forecast is based upon the current (2017) electoral boundaries. Note that these boundaries are likely to change before the next(possibly 2022) election.

See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques.

Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.

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