UK-Elect General Election Forecast, February 11th 2026.

Reform UK Short By 45.

In this UK-Elect General Election forecast Reform UK are projected to win 280 seats, 45 short of a majority. This gives them 181 more than the Labour Party's 99 seats with the Conservative's on 89 seats, the Liberal Democrats on 80, the Scottish National Party on 42, and the Green Party on 24 seats. For other party seat totals and more information see the detailed results below.

The UK-Elect 13.2 method was used for the forecast, using overall GB-wide percentages combined with separate Scottish and Welsh percentages. The number of forecast iterations was set to 10. Incumbency and tactical voting calculations were enabled at default setting values.

GB percentages used were: Reform UK 29%, Lab 20%, Con 19%, LD 13%, Green 13%, SNP 2.6%, Plaid Cymru 0.9%. Scottish percentages used were: SNP 33%, Reform UK 21%, Lab 17%, Con 11%, LD 9%, Green 7%. Welsh percentages used were: Reform UK 27%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Lab 15%, Con 13%, Green 11%, LD 7%. All percentages are based on an approximate average of the latest polls. No attempt was made to forecast Northern Ireland using updated percentages.

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See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
UK   UK (With Gains)   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   Northern England   Midlands   Gains   Losses   Swing To   Swing From   2nd
Forecast Data File:
UK Top 3 in every seat - CSV file (for Excel etc.)

Party Seats Change Reform UK 280 +275 Labour 99 -312 Conservative 89 -32 Liberal Democrat 80 +8 SNP 42 +33 Green 24 +20 Plaid Cymru 9 +5 Independent 8 +2 Sinn Fein 7 - DUP 5 - SDLP 2 - Others 5 +1 Reform UK short by 45 Note: +/- comparisons are with 2024 UK General Election. See also: UK Top 3 in every seat (CSV)

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Additional UK-Elect generated maps and screenshots (Click to enlarge)
Hover cursor over map for more information, click on image to enlarge

Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election.

See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page.

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