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UK-Elect Scottish Parliament Forecast, April 23rd 2021.
SNP forecast to repeat 2016 result, and potentially retain control of the Scottish Parliament in alliance with the Green Party
This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election, created on April 23rd 2021 using an approximate average of the latest Scottish Parliament opinion poll percentages. It shows the SNP repeating their 2016 result, falling 2 seats short of an overall majority. They again will be able to govern in alliance with the Green Party, who are forecast to gain 4 seats overall.
The percentages used for this forecast were - Constituency vote: SNP 49%, Con 22%, Lab 19%, Lib Dem 6%, Green 2%, Other 2%. Regional member vote: SNP 38%, Con 21.5%, Lab 17.5%, Green 9%, Lib Dem 6%, Alba 5%, ReformUK 1%, UKIP 1%, Other 1%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.
(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )
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See also:
Constituencies map and comparison with 2016
Notes: The forecast base was the 2016 Scottish Parliament Election. The UK-Elect v12.1 method was used (UK-Elect supports many different alternatives, including "classic" methods such as Uniform National Swing, Proportional, and Proportional Loss, with or without a threshold). The forecast was made using the Additional Member System used in the Scottish Parliament elections.
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